Recent model consensus from sources like GFS and ECMWF points to a Madrid high near 29–30°C on September 16, driven by a transition to northeasterly flow that limits daytime heating while clear skies allow strong solar insolation. Key variables include wind speed and direction, which modulate warm-air advection from the interior versus cooler maritime influence, alongside boundary-layer mixing and minimal cloud cover that could push peaks slightly higher or lower depending on timing. Ensemble spreads reflect this uncertainty, with historical September 16 averages near 26°C and records above 33°C underscoring how modest synoptic shifts alter outcomes. Updated runs and observational data ahead of the date will refine the market-implied distribution centered on 28–31°C.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Мадриде 16 сентября?
Самая высокая температура в Мадриде 16 сентября?
29°C 40%
28°C 37%
30°C 31%
31°C 20%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
16 сент. 2026 г.
26°C или ниже
<1%
27°C
5%
28°C
37%
29°C
40%
30°C
31%
31°C
20%
32°C
16%
33°C
8%
34°C
5%
35°C
2%
36°C или выше
<1%
29°C 40%
28°C 37%
30°C 31%
31°C 20%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
16 сент. 2026 г.
26°C или ниже
$0 Объем
<1%
27°C
$0 Объем
5%
28°C
$0 Объем
37%
29°C
$0 Объем
40%
30°C
$194 Объем
31%
31°C
$59 Объем
20%
32°C
$0 Объем
16%
33°C
$0 Объем
8%
34°C
$0 Объем
5%
35°C
$5 Объем
2%
36°C или выше
$0 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources like GFS and ECMWF points to a Madrid high near 29–30°C on September 16, driven by a transition to northeasterly flow that limits daytime heating while clear skies allow strong solar insolation. Key variables include wind speed and direction, which modulate warm-air advection from the interior versus cooler maritime influence, alongside boundary-layer mixing and minimal cloud cover that could push peaks slightly higher or lower depending on timing. Ensemble spreads reflect this uncertainty, with historical September 16 averages near 26°C and records above 33°C underscoring how modest synoptic shifts alter outcomes. Updated runs and observational data ahead of the date will refine the market-implied distribution centered on 28–31°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Sep 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Объем
$258Дата окончания
16 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources like GFS and ECMWF points to a Madrid high near 29–30°C on September 16, driven by a transition to northeasterly flow that limits daytime heating while clear skies allow strong solar insolation. Key variables include wind speed and direction, which modulate warm-air advection from the interior versus cooler maritime influence, alongside boundary-layer mixing and minimal cloud cover that could push peaks slightly higher or lower depending on timing. Ensemble spreads reflect this uncertainty, with historical September 16 averages near 26°C and records above 33°C underscoring how modest synoptic shifts alter outcomes. Updated runs and observational data ahead of the date will refine the market-implied distribution centered on 28–31°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$258Дата окончания
16 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from sources like GFS and ECMWF points to a Madrid high near 29–30°C on September 16, driven by a transition to northeasterly flow that limits daytime heating while clear skies allow strong solar insolation. Key variables include wind speed and direction, which modulate warm-air advection from the interior versus cooler maritime influence, alongside boundary-layer mixing and minimal cloud cover that could push peaks slightly higher or lower depending on timing. Ensemble spreads reflect this uncertainty, with historical September 16 averages near 26°C and records above 33°C underscoring how modest synoptic shifts alter outcomes. Updated runs and observational data ahead of the date will refine the market-implied distribution centered on 28–31°C.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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