As of April 16, no magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes have occurred worldwide since the market window opened on April 13, per USGS monitoring, driving the 65% trader consensus for zero events through April 19. This aligns with historical global averages of roughly 0.2–0.3 such quakes per week, modeled as a Poisson process reflecting steady tectonic strain release without predictable clustering. Recent Nevada M5.7 swarm activity produced numerous aftershocks but none reaching the threshold, and no anomalous seismic patterns—such as foreshock sequences or strain accumulation on major fault lines—appear in current USGS data. Traders anticipate low probability for escalation, with real-time updates from USGS feeds likely to influence remaining odds over the next three days.