Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon, including back-to-back attacks on April 15 killing four Lebanese medics amid Hezbollah cross-border fire, have solidified trader consensus at 56.5% for military action against exactly two countries, primarily Lebanon and Syria where routine strikes on military compounds continue. The 37.5% odds for three reflect potential responses to Yemen's Houthi missile barrages, such as the April 6 coordinated assault with Iran and Hezbollah, given Israel's historical naval and air reprisals. Post-US-Iran ceasefire violations and UN condemnations underscore escalation risks, though low 6.5% for four or more highlights diplomatic pressures limiting broader fronts like Iraq before April ends.