Lebanese President Joseph Aoun’s July 22, 2026, White House meeting with President Trump marked the clearest recent diplomatic signal, with Aoun pledging to end all hostilities with Israel “forever” and disarm Hezbollah as part of efforts toward a permanent agreement. U.S.-facilitated talks, building on the March-April 2026 ceasefire understanding between Israel and Lebanon, focus on mutual recognition of sovereignty, border security arrangements, and withdrawal of non-state armed groups. These negotiations remain tied to broader U.S.-Iran diplomacy, where Tehran has linked Lebanese outcomes to any wider regional memorandum. Trader sentiment reflects ongoing verification of Hezbollah disarmament commitments and the durability of the existing ceasefire amid historical precedent for fragile border truces.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоИзраиль x Хезболла постоянное мирное соглашение...?
Израиль x Хезболла постоянное мирное соглашение...?
$9,986,534 Объем
30 мая 2026 г.
26 апреля
Нет
31 мая
Нет
15 июня
Нет
30 июня
Нет
31 июля
Нет
$9,986,534 Объем
26 апреля
$77,082 Объем
Нет
31 мая
$1,631,784 Объем
Нет
15 июня
$3,245,622 Объем
Нет
30 июня
$3,796,433 Объем
Нет
31 июля
$1,235,612 Объем
Нет
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Lebanese President Joseph Aoun’s July 22, 2026, White House meeting with President Trump marked the clearest recent diplomatic signal, with Aoun pledging to end all hostilities with Israel “forever” and disarm Hezbollah as part of efforts toward a permanent agreement. U.S.-facilitated talks, building on the March-April 2026 ceasefire understanding between Israel and Lebanon, focus on mutual recognition of sovereignty, border security arrangements, and withdrawal of non-state armed groups. These negotiations remain tied to broader U.S.-Iran diplomacy, where Tehran has linked Lebanese outcomes to any wider regional memorandum. Trader sentiment reflects ongoing verification of Hezbollah disarmament commitments and the durability of the existing ceasefire amid historical precedent for fragile border truces.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Apr 16, 2026, 7:48 PM ET
Объем
$9,986,534Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 16, 2026, 7:48 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070be91...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Lebanese President Joseph Aoun’s July 22, 2026, White House meeting with President Trump marked the clearest recent diplomatic signal, with Aoun pledging to end all hostilities with Israel “forever” and disarm Hezbollah as part of efforts toward a permanent agreement. U.S.-facilitated talks, building on the March-April 2026 ceasefire understanding between Israel and Lebanon, focus on mutual recognition of sovereignty, border security arrangements, and withdrawal of non-state armed groups. These negotiations remain tied to broader U.S.-Iran diplomacy, where Tehran has linked Lebanese outcomes to any wider regional memorandum. Trader sentiment reflects ongoing verification of Hezbollah disarmament commitments and the durability of the existing ceasefire amid historical precedent for fragile border truces.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$9,986,534Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 16, 2026, 7:48 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070be91...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun’s July 22, 2026, White House meeting with President Trump marked the clearest recent diplomatic signal, with Aoun pledging to end all hostilities with Israel “forever” and disarm Hezbollah as part of efforts toward a permanent agreement. U.S.-facilitated talks, building on the March-April 2026 ceasefire understanding between Israel and Lebanon, focus on mutual recognition of sovereignty, border security arrangements, and withdrawal of non-state armed groups. These negotiations remain tied to broader U.S.-Iran diplomacy, where Tehran has linked Lebanese outcomes to any wider regional memorandum. Trader sentiment reflects ongoing verification of Hezbollah disarmament commitments and the durability of the existing ceasefire amid historical precedent for fragile border truces.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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