Forecast models from agencies including Argentina’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and international sources such as the Met Office and European ensembles currently project a daily minimum of 8–11 °C for Buenos Aires on 29 August under building high pressure, light northeasterly to easterly flow, and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies that limit radiative cooling. These conditions contrast with earlier August cold-air intrusions that produced isolated lows near 5 °C, creating residual trader caution reflected in the 35.5 % market-implied probability for 2 °C or below. Key differentiating variables include nocturnal cloud cover, exact wind speeds, and urban heat-island effects that can raise city-center readings 1–2 °C above airport observations; any late-model shift introducing stronger southerly advection or clearer skies could tighten the range toward 6–8 °C. Resolution hinges on the official 24-hour minimum recorded at the reference station, with updated runs expected overnight.