Recent observational data from Buenos Aires stations, including overnight readings near 6–7°C under clear skies and southeasterly winds, form the main driver behind the tightly clustered market-implied odds around 4–7°C. Radiative cooling during the night, combined with dry air and light winds, promoted efficient heat loss from the surface, while a modest cold-air mass kept daytime highs modest. Model guidance and station reports show minor variations in exact minimums depending on siting and timing, creating genuine uncertainty that explains the near-even split among the leading outcomes rather than a decisive lean. Official verification from the primary meteorological station will resolve the market once final hourly data are confirmed.