Macron has repeatedly stated his intent to serve out his second and final presidential term through its constitutional end in May 2027, citing term limits that bar a third consecutive run. Trader consensus prices the probability of an earlier exit by June 30, 2026, at just 1 percent, reflecting his continued diplomatic activity, recent appointments such as Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu, and the absence of successful parliamentary mechanisms to force resignation despite a fragmented National Assembly and low approval ratings. Key structural barriers include the Fifth Republic's strong presidential powers and lack of recent no-confidence votes targeting Macron personally. Potential catalysts remain limited to unforeseen health events or major scandals before the 2027 election cycle.