The 2026 Quebec general election on October 5 features a competitive contest in the Montarville riding, where incumbent CAQ MNA and National Assembly president Nathalie Roy seeks re-election against Liberal Mathieu Lavoie, PQ candidate Jean-François Cloutier, QS nominee Ginette Langlois, and others. Roy's incumbency and established profile provide a baseline edge in a riding with recent CAQ strength, yet provincial polling shows a tight PQ-CAQ battle that narrows margins locally, with vote projections clustering CAQ and PQ support in the low-to-mid 30s. Candidate announcements in recent months, including Roy's confirmation and cross-party nominations, have kept trader attention balanced among frontrunners. Late-campaign developments such as riding-specific polls, leader visits, or shifts in broader party momentum could widen gaps before nomination deadlines close in mid-September.