Russia's Supreme Court disqualified the Yabloko party from the September 2026 State Duma ballot on August 10 following a Rodina party lawsuit citing alleged copyright issues, foreign funding links, and spending violations. This followed Central Election Commission registration in late July and came amid documented administrative barriers, including the disqualification of dozens of candidates and restrictions on the party's anti-war platform. Yabloko has not cleared the 5% proportional threshold since 1999 and polled near 3% in recent surveys, well below the level needed for Duma representation in Russia's tightly managed electoral system. These confirmed legal and structural constraints underpin the near-certain trader consensus against threshold clearance. A successful appeal or unanticipated shift in registration rules could theoretically reopen participation, though both remain low-probability outcomes before the vote.