Persistent dry conditions and flash drought expansion across the South-Central U.S., parts of the Southeast, and northern New England have driven recent upgrades to D4 exceptional drought on the U.S. Drought Monitor, with isolated pockets now reported in Arkansas, North Carolina, and South Carolina as of early September 2026. These developments, fueled by prolonged rainfall deficits, record heat, and low streamflows, support the market's strong 79.5% implied probability on 10 or more states showing any D4 area in the week of September 15. The U.S. Drought Monitor's weekly Thursday release incorporates soil moisture percentiles, precipitation data, and expert assessment; traders appear to anticipate further degradation before seasonal relief potentially arrives later in the fall.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСколько штатов будет в Д4 (Исключительная засуха) — неделя с 15 сентября 2026 года?
Сколько штатов будет в Д4 (Исключительная засуха) — неделя с 15 сентября 2026 года?
10 или более штатов 80%
7–9 штатов 32%
1-2 штата 21%
3-4 штата 15%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
17 сент. 2026 г.
0 штатов
1%
1-2 штата
21%
3-4 штата
15%
5-6 штатов
15%
7–9 штатов
32%
10 или более штатов
80%
10 или более штатов 80%
7–9 штатов 32%
1-2 штата 21%
3-4 штата 15%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
17 сент. 2026 г.
0 штатов
$21 Объем
1%
1-2 штата
$0 Объем
21%
3-4 штата
$0 Объем
15%
5-6 штатов
$0 Объем
15%
7–9 штатов
$0 Объем
32%
10 или более штатов
$0 Объем
80%
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 15, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.Persistent dry conditions and flash drought expansion across the South-Central U.S., parts of the Southeast, and northern New England have driven recent upgrades to D4 exceptional drought on the U.S. Drought Monitor, with isolated pockets now reported in Arkansas, North Carolina, and South Carolina as of early September 2026. These developments, fueled by prolonged rainfall deficits, record heat, and low streamflows, support the market's strong 79.5% implied probability on 10 or more states showing any D4 area in the week of September 15. The U.S. Drought Monitor's weekly Thursday release incorporates soil moisture percentiles, precipitation data, and expert assessment; traders appear to anticipate further degradation before seasonal relief potentially arrives later in the fall.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 15, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Открытие рынка: Sep 10, 2026, 9:00 AM ET
Объем
$21Дата окончания
17 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 10, 2026, 9:00 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 15, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.Persistent dry conditions and flash drought expansion across the South-Central U.S., parts of the Southeast, and northern New England have driven recent upgrades to D4 exceptional drought on the U.S. Drought Monitor, with isolated pockets now reported in Arkansas, North Carolina, and South Carolina as of early September 2026. These developments, fueled by prolonged rainfall deficits, record heat, and low streamflows, support the market's strong 79.5% implied probability on 10 or more states showing any D4 area in the week of September 15. The U.S. Drought Monitor's weekly Thursday release incorporates soil moisture percentiles, precipitation data, and expert assessment; traders appear to anticipate further degradation before seasonal relief potentially arrives later in the fall.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 15, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Объем
$21Дата окончания
17 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 10, 2026, 9:00 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Persistent dry conditions and flash drought expansion across the South-Central U.S., parts of the Southeast, and northern New England have driven recent upgrades to D4 exceptional drought on the U.S. Drought Monitor, with isolated pockets now reported in Arkansas, North Carolina, and South Carolina as of early September 2026. These developments, fueled by prolonged rainfall deficits, record heat, and low streamflows, support the market's strong 79.5% implied probability on 10 or more states showing any D4 area in the week of September 15. The U.S. Drought Monitor's weekly Thursday release incorporates soil moisture percentiles, precipitation data, and expert assessment; traders appear to anticipate further degradation before seasonal relief potentially arrives later in the fall.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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