**Trader consensus has converged on 32°C as the highest temperature in Hong Kong on September 11, 2026, at a 99.8% market-implied probability.** This positioning is driven by the Hong Kong Observatory’s official daily maximum reading, which aligns with observed conditions under northeast monsoon flow. That pattern delivered partly cloudy skies, lighter winds, and peak heating near seasonal September norms of 31–32°C, with relative humidity dropping below 60% during afternoon hours. Nearby forecast guidance from sources such as the Met Office and WeatherBug projected highs in the low 30s Celsius, consistent with the final recorded value. Realistic scenarios that could have altered the outcome—such as stronger cloud cover, increased rainfall, or a shift in steering winds—did not materialize, leaving only negligible probability mass on adjacent bins. The market’s near-certainty reflects the resolution source being finalized post-event data rather than model uncertainty.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Гонконге 11 сентября?
Самая высокая температура в Гонконге 11 сентября?
32°C 99.8%
31°C <1%
26°C или ниже <1%
27°C <1%
$111,293 Объем
$111,293 Объем
11 сент. 2026 г.
26°C или ниже
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
100%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C или выше
<1%
32°C 99.8%
31°C <1%
26°C или ниже <1%
27°C <1%
$111,293 Объем
$111,293 Объем
11 сент. 2026 г.
26°C или ниже
$265 Объем
<1%
27°C
$228 Объем
<1%
28°C
$19,467 Объем
<1%
29°C
$11,251 Объем
<1%
30°C
$12,789 Объем
<1%
31°C
$20,940 Объем
<1%
32°C
$16,005 Объем
100%
33°C
$26,181 Объем
<1%
34°C
$3,661 Объем
<1%
35°C
$274 Объем
<1%
36°C или выше
$230 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus has converged on 32°C as the highest temperature in Hong Kong on September 11, 2026, at a 99.8% market-implied probability.** This positioning is driven by the Hong Kong Observatory’s official daily maximum reading, which aligns with observed conditions under northeast monsoon flow. That pattern delivered partly cloudy skies, lighter winds, and peak heating near seasonal September norms of 31–32°C, with relative humidity dropping below 60% during afternoon hours. Nearby forecast guidance from sources such as the Met Office and WeatherBug projected highs in the low 30s Celsius, consistent with the final recorded value.
Realistic scenarios that could have altered the outcome—such as stronger cloud cover, increased rainfall, or a shift in steering winds—did not materialize, leaving only negligible probability mass on adjacent bins. The market’s near-certainty reflects the resolution source being finalized post-event data rather than model uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Sep 9, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Объем
$111,293Дата окончания
11 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 9, 2026, 12:56 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus has converged on 32°C as the highest temperature in Hong Kong on September 11, 2026, at a 99.8% market-implied probability.** This positioning is driven by the Hong Kong Observatory’s official daily maximum reading, which aligns with observed conditions under northeast monsoon flow. That pattern delivered partly cloudy skies, lighter winds, and peak heating near seasonal September norms of 31–32°C, with relative humidity dropping below 60% during afternoon hours. Nearby forecast guidance from sources such as the Met Office and WeatherBug projected highs in the low 30s Celsius, consistent with the final recorded value.
Realistic scenarios that could have altered the outcome—such as stronger cloud cover, increased rainfall, or a shift in steering winds—did not materialize, leaving only negligible probability mass on adjacent bins. The market’s near-certainty reflects the resolution source being finalized post-event data rather than model uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$111,293Дата окончания
11 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 9, 2026, 12:56 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus has converged on 32°C as the highest temperature in Hong Kong on September 11, 2026, at a 99.8% market-implied probability.** This positioning is driven by the Hong Kong Observatory’s official daily maximum reading, which aligns with observed conditions under northeast monsoon flow. That pattern delivered partly cloudy skies, lighter winds, and peak heating near seasonal September norms of 31–32°C, with relative humidity dropping below 60% during afternoon hours. Nearby forecast guidance from sources such as the Met Office and WeatherBug projected highs in the low 30s Celsius, consistent with the final recorded value. Realistic scenarios that could have altered the outcome—such as stronger cloud cover, increased rainfall, or a shift in steering winds—did not materialize, leaving only negligible probability mass on adjacent bins. The market’s near-certainty reflects the resolution source being finalized post-event data rather than model uncertainty.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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