U.S. policy under the Trump administration has explored de facto acceptance of Russian control over Crimea as part of Ukraine peace negotiations, with the president publicly stating the peninsula would remain with Russia and envoys discussing related proposals in 2025. Formal de jure recognition of sovereignty has not occurred, however, amid congressional measures such as the 2025 Senate bill prohibiting such action, Ukrainian constitutional barriers requiring referendums on territorial changes, and consistent international non-recognition norms. Ongoing diplomatic efforts through 2026 have not produced an agreement, while Ukrainian strikes on Russian positions in Crimea and allied statements reaffirming territorial integrity continue to shape the environment. These structural and political constraints underpin trader expectations that the United States will not extend formal recognition before the 2027 deadline.