The federal budget deficit has remained elevated in fiscal year 2026, with the first ten months already totaling roughly $1.8 trillion according to Treasury and CBO data, exceeding prior-year levels amid $40 trillion national debt. Key drivers include the 2025 reconciliation legislation adding trillions to projected deficits through tax provisions and new outlays, rising mandatory spending on entitlements and net interest, and reduced tariff revenue following court rulings. Administration officials have signaled upcoming fiscal consolidation efforts, yet current trajectories and CBO baselines show no near-term reversal before 2027. Traders’ strong consensus on “No” reflects these persistent structural pressures and limited time remaining for measurable reduction.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
8% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 дек. 2026 г.
Да
8% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 дек. 2026 г.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.The federal budget deficit has remained elevated in fiscal year 2026, with the first ten months already totaling roughly $1.8 trillion according to Treasury and CBO data, exceeding prior-year levels amid $40 trillion national debt. Key drivers include the 2025 reconciliation legislation adding trillions to projected deficits through tax provisions and new outlays, rising mandatory spending on entitlements and net interest, and reduced tariff revenue following court rulings. Administration officials have signaled upcoming fiscal consolidation efforts, yet current trajectories and CBO baselines show no near-term reversal before 2027. Traders’ strong consensus on “No” reflects these persistent structural pressures and limited time remaining for measurable reduction.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ET
Объем
$2,569Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.The federal budget deficit has remained elevated in fiscal year 2026, with the first ten months already totaling roughly $1.8 trillion according to Treasury and CBO data, exceeding prior-year levels amid $40 trillion national debt. Key drivers include the 2025 reconciliation legislation adding trillions to projected deficits through tax provisions and new outlays, rising mandatory spending on entitlements and net interest, and reduced tariff revenue following court rulings. Administration officials have signaled upcoming fiscal consolidation efforts, yet current trajectories and CBO baselines show no near-term reversal before 2027. Traders’ strong consensus on “No” reflects these persistent structural pressures and limited time remaining for measurable reduction.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
Объем
$2,569Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The federal budget deficit has remained elevated in fiscal year 2026, with the first ten months already totaling roughly $1.8 trillion according to Treasury and CBO data, exceeding prior-year levels amid $40 trillion national debt. Key drivers include the 2025 reconciliation legislation adding trillions to projected deficits through tax provisions and new outlays, rising mandatory spending on entitlements and net interest, and reduced tariff revenue following court rulings. Administration officials have signaled upcoming fiscal consolidation efforts, yet current trajectories and CBO baselines show no near-term reversal before 2027. Traders’ strong consensus on “No” reflects these persistent structural pressures and limited time remaining for measurable reduction.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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