Recent U.S. trade data show the goods-and-services deficit holding near $901 billion for full-year 2025, with monthly readings in early 2026 averaging roughly $56–60 billion. Elevated tariffs imposed since early 2025 have curbed goods imports more than exports, while the services surplus has widened modestly. CBO baseline projections and trader models anticipate continued modest narrowing through 2026 as import substitution and supply-chain shifts take hold, tempered by resilient domestic demand and limited immediate export gains. These dynamics place the 800–900 billion range at the center of market pricing, with the adjacent 900 billion–1 trillion bucket reflecting residual uncertainty over tariff pass-through, dollar movements, and GDP growth. Scheduled BEA releases through year-end and any additional trade-policy adjustments remain the primary near-term catalysts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$21,256 Объем
$21,256 Объем
28 фев. 2027 г.
<500 млрд
5%
500–600 млрд
4%
600–700 млрд
10%
700–800 млрд
10%
800–900 млрд
38%
900 млрд – 1 трлн
20%
1–1,1 трлн
5%
1,1 трлн+
5%
$21,256 Объем
$21,256 Объем
28 фев. 2027 г.
<500 млрд
$16,808 Объем
5%
500–600 млрд
$413 Объем
4%
600–700 млрд
$505 Объем
10%
700–800 млрд
$456 Объем
10%
800–900 млрд
$1,008 Объем
38%
900 млрд – 1 трлн
$984 Объем
20%
1–1,1 трлн
$447 Объем
5%
1,1 трлн+
$635 Объем
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. trade data show the goods-and-services deficit holding near $901 billion for full-year 2025, with monthly readings in early 2026 averaging roughly $56–60 billion. Elevated tariffs imposed since early 2025 have curbed goods imports more than exports, while the services surplus has widened modestly. CBO baseline projections and trader models anticipate continued modest narrowing through 2026 as import substitution and supply-chain shifts take hold, tempered by resilient domestic demand and limited immediate export gains. These dynamics place the 800–900 billion range at the center of market pricing, with the adjacent 900 billion–1 trillion bucket reflecting residual uncertainty over tariff pass-through, dollar movements, and GDP growth. Scheduled BEA releases through year-end and any additional trade-policy adjustments remain the primary near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Объем
$21,256Дата окончания
28 фев. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. trade data show the goods-and-services deficit holding near $901 billion for full-year 2025, with monthly readings in early 2026 averaging roughly $56–60 billion. Elevated tariffs imposed since early 2025 have curbed goods imports more than exports, while the services surplus has widened modestly. CBO baseline projections and trader models anticipate continued modest narrowing through 2026 as import substitution and supply-chain shifts take hold, tempered by resilient domestic demand and limited immediate export gains. These dynamics place the 800–900 billion range at the center of market pricing, with the adjacent 900 billion–1 trillion bucket reflecting residual uncertainty over tariff pass-through, dollar movements, and GDP growth. Scheduled BEA releases through year-end and any additional trade-policy adjustments remain the primary near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Объем
$21,256Дата окончания
28 фев. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. trade data show the goods-and-services deficit holding near $901 billion for full-year 2025, with monthly readings in early 2026 averaging roughly $56–60 billion. Elevated tariffs imposed since early 2025 have curbed goods imports more than exports, while the services surplus has widened modestly. CBO baseline projections and trader models anticipate continued modest narrowing through 2026 as import substitution and supply-chain shifts take hold, tempered by resilient domestic demand and limited immediate export gains. These dynamics place the 800–900 billion range at the center of market pricing, with the adjacent 900 billion–1 trillion bucket reflecting residual uncertainty over tariff pass-through, dollar movements, and GDP growth. Scheduled BEA releases through year-end and any additional trade-policy adjustments remain the primary near-term catalysts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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