Recent U.S. trade data shows the 2025 goods-and-services deficit settled at $901.5 billion, nearly unchanged from 2024 despite new tariffs imposed beginning February 2025. Those duties raised import costs, shifted some supply chains away from targeted partners, and lifted customs revenue, yet the overall balance narrowed only modestly because services surpluses grew and macroeconomic factors such as the savings-investment gap and federal budget position continued to support capital inflows. CBO projections anticipate further gradual shrinkage as a share of GDP through 2026 as firms adjust and the dollar depreciates modestly. Trader positioning around the 800–900 billion band versus the 700–800 billion range therefore hinges on the pace of import substitution, retaliatory effects on exports, and any additional 2026 policy measures that could alter bilateral flows or domestic demand.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$21,426 Объем
$21,426 Объем
28 фев. 2027 г.
<500 млрд
5%
500–600 млрд
3%
600–700 млрд
10%
700–800 млрд
19%
800–900 млрд
35%
900 млрд – 1 трлн
12%
1–1,1 трлн
4%
1,1 трлн+
4%
$21,426 Объем
$21,426 Объем
28 фев. 2027 г.
<500 млрд
$16,813 Объем
5%
500–600 млрд
$413 Объем
3%
600–700 млрд
$505 Объем
10%
700–800 млрд
$525 Объем
19%
800–900 млрд
$1,008 Объем
35%
900 млрд – 1 трлн
$1,080 Объем
12%
1–1,1 трлн
$447 Объем
4%
1,1 трлн+
$635 Объем
4%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. trade data shows the 2025 goods-and-services deficit settled at $901.5 billion, nearly unchanged from 2024 despite new tariffs imposed beginning February 2025. Those duties raised import costs, shifted some supply chains away from targeted partners, and lifted customs revenue, yet the overall balance narrowed only modestly because services surpluses grew and macroeconomic factors such as the savings-investment gap and federal budget position continued to support capital inflows. CBO projections anticipate further gradual shrinkage as a share of GDP through 2026 as firms adjust and the dollar depreciates modestly. Trader positioning around the 800–900 billion band versus the 700–800 billion range therefore hinges on the pace of import substitution, retaliatory effects on exports, and any additional 2026 policy measures that could alter bilateral flows or domestic demand.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Объем
$21,426Дата окончания
28 фев. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. trade data shows the 2025 goods-and-services deficit settled at $901.5 billion, nearly unchanged from 2024 despite new tariffs imposed beginning February 2025. Those duties raised import costs, shifted some supply chains away from targeted partners, and lifted customs revenue, yet the overall balance narrowed only modestly because services surpluses grew and macroeconomic factors such as the savings-investment gap and federal budget position continued to support capital inflows. CBO projections anticipate further gradual shrinkage as a share of GDP through 2026 as firms adjust and the dollar depreciates modestly. Trader positioning around the 800–900 billion band versus the 700–800 billion range therefore hinges on the pace of import substitution, retaliatory effects on exports, and any additional 2026 policy measures that could alter bilateral flows or domestic demand.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Объем
$21,426Дата окончания
28 фев. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. trade data shows the 2025 goods-and-services deficit settled at $901.5 billion, nearly unchanged from 2024 despite new tariffs imposed beginning February 2025. Those duties raised import costs, shifted some supply chains away from targeted partners, and lifted customs revenue, yet the overall balance narrowed only modestly because services surpluses grew and macroeconomic factors such as the savings-investment gap and federal budget position continued to support capital inflows. CBO projections anticipate further gradual shrinkage as a share of GDP through 2026 as firms adjust and the dollar depreciates modestly. Trader positioning around the 800–900 billion band versus the 700–800 billion range therefore hinges on the pace of import substitution, retaliatory effects on exports, and any additional 2026 policy measures that could alter bilateral flows or domestic demand.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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