Trader consensus prices all outcomes—Bluebaum win, draw, Caruana win—at even 50% implied probabilities for Round 12 of the FIDE Candidates 2026 Open, reflecting a razor-thin edge in this classical chess showdown after 11 rounds. Caruana, third with 5 points following his Round 11 victory over Wei Yi, seeks to close the 3-point gap to leader Javokhir Sindarov's 8/11, while Bluebaum sits sixth at 4.5 points on draws against Esipenko and others, showcasing his ultra-solid style that has yielded just one loss (to Caruana in Round 5's Petroff Defence checkmate). Bluebaum's white pieces offer revenge potential in the double round-robin format, but Caruana's superior rating (2795 vs. 2698) and aggressive prep keep win chances balanced amid late-tournament fatigue and draw tendencies among grandmasters.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIf Matthias Bluebaum wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed.
If the match is canceled entirely, with no make-up match, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Market Opened: Apr 10, 2026, 10:01 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://lichess.org/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If Matthias Bluebaum wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed.
If the match is canceled entirely, with no make-up match, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Market Opened: Apr 10, 2026, 10:01 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://lichess.org/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus prices all outcomes—Bluebaum win, draw, Caruana win—at even 50% implied probabilities for Round 12 of the FIDE Candidates 2026 Open, reflecting a razor-thin edge in this classical chess showdown after 11 rounds. Caruana, third with 5 points following his Round 11 victory over Wei Yi, seeks to close the 3-point gap to leader Javokhir Sindarov's 8/11, while Bluebaum sits sixth at 4.5 points on draws against Esipenko and others, showcasing his ultra-solid style that has yielded just one loss (to Caruana in Round 5's Petroff Defence checkmate). Bluebaum's white pieces offer revenge potential in the double round-robin format, but Caruana's superior rating (2795 vs. 2698) and aggressive prep keep win chances balanced amid late-tournament fatigue and draw tendencies among grandmasters.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated

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