Democratic opposition energy against the incumbent administration, combined with Republican get-out-the-vote operations targeting low-propensity 2024 voters, has kept projected 2026 House turnout tightly clustered between 115-130 million ballots. Elevated Democratic primary and special-election participation, expanded mail and early voting access, and youth registration gains support higher totals, while historical midterm drop-off patterns, affordability concerns among infrequent voters, and GOP convention mobilization efforts cap expectations near recent cycle averages. Competitive battlegrounds and late-campaign spending could widen participation if enthusiasm gaps widen, whereas subdued base response on either side risks pulling volumes toward the lower end of current trader ranges.