Recent polling averages place the Alaska Senate contest between incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola within a few points in the initial round, consistent with the market's balanced pricing on narrow margins. Peltola's stronger primary showing, superior fundraising, and support among independents and younger voters have offset Sullivan's incumbency advantages and Republican base consolidation. Ranked-choice voting introduces additional uncertainty around first-round tallies, as voters' full rankings and the presence of minor-party candidates on the ballot can shift effective margins. The race's toss-up status across forecasters reflects these cross-pressures, with further separation likely hinging on turnout patterns and late-cycle messaging through November.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วPeltola 0-3% 18%
Peltola 3-6% 18%
Sullivan 6-9% 15%
Sullivan 9-12% 14%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Sullivan 12+%
4%
Sullivan 9-12%
14%
Sullivan 6-9%
15%
Sullivan 3-6%
11%
Sullivan 0-3%
13%
Peltola 0-3%
18%
Peltola 3-6%
18%
Peltola 6-9%
9%
Peltola 9-12%
5%
Peltola 12+%
14%
Peltola 0-3% 18%
Peltola 3-6% 18%
Sullivan 6-9% 15%
Sullivan 9-12% 14%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Sullivan 12+%
$246 ปริมาณ
4%
Sullivan 9-12%
$42 ปริมาณ
14%
Sullivan 6-9%
$42 ปริมาณ
15%
Sullivan 3-6%
$62 ปริมาณ
11%
Sullivan 0-3%
$43 ปริมาณ
13%
Peltola 0-3%
$81 ปริมาณ
18%
Peltola 3-6%
$42 ปริมาณ
18%
Peltola 6-9%
$47 ปริมาณ
9%
Peltola 9-12%
$53 ปริมาณ
5%
Peltola 12+%
$42 ปริมาณ
14%
The first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling averages place the Alaska Senate contest between incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola within a few points in the initial round, consistent with the market's balanced pricing on narrow margins. Peltola's stronger primary showing, superior fundraising, and support among independents and younger voters have offset Sullivan's incumbency advantages and Republican base consolidation. Ranked-choice voting introduces additional uncertainty around first-round tallies, as voters' full rankings and the presence of minor-party candidates on the ballot can shift effective margins. The race's toss-up status across forecasters reflects these cross-pressures, with further separation likely hinging on turnout patterns and late-cycle messaging through November.
The first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 17, 2026, 2:29 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$701วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 17, 2026, 2:29 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...The first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling averages place the Alaska Senate contest between incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola within a few points in the initial round, consistent with the market's balanced pricing on narrow margins. Peltola's stronger primary showing, superior fundraising, and support among independents and younger voters have offset Sullivan's incumbency advantages and Republican base consolidation. Ranked-choice voting introduces additional uncertainty around first-round tallies, as voters' full rankings and the presence of minor-party candidates on the ballot can shift effective margins. The race's toss-up status across forecasters reflects these cross-pressures, with further separation likely hinging on turnout patterns and late-cycle messaging through November.
The first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$701วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 17, 2026, 2:29 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages place the Alaska Senate contest between incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola within a few points in the initial round, consistent with the market's balanced pricing on narrow margins. Peltola's stronger primary showing, superior fundraising, and support among independents and younger voters have offset Sullivan's incumbency advantages and Republican base consolidation. Ranked-choice voting introduces additional uncertainty around first-round tallies, as voters' full rankings and the presence of minor-party candidates on the ballot can shift effective margins. The race's toss-up status across forecasters reflects these cross-pressures, with further separation likely hinging on turnout patterns and late-cycle messaging through November.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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