**Democratic nominee Christina Bohannan holds a 71% implied probability in the IA-01 House race, while incumbent Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks sits at 28.5%.** The district’s narrow 2024 margin and its mix of Iowa City’s Democratic-leaning areas with more rural counties have kept it rated a toss-up or lean Democratic by most forecasters. A July 2026 poll of likely voters showed Bohannan ahead 40%–35% with independent Michael Bridgford at 11%. Primaries in June confirmed both major-party nominees, and the broader 2026 midterm environment—marked by typical out-party gains and national polling trends—has reinforced trader positioning toward a Democratic flip. Resolution occurs after the November 3 general election once certified results determine the winner.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วIA-01 House Election Winner
IA-01 House Election Winner
$27,498 ปริมาณ
$27,498 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
71%
Republican Party
29%
$27,498 ปริมาณ
$27,498 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$18,288 ปริมาณ
71%
Republican Party
$9,210 ปริมาณ
29%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Democratic nominee Christina Bohannan holds a 71% implied probability in the IA-01 House race, while incumbent Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks sits at 28.5%.**
The district’s narrow 2024 margin and its mix of Iowa City’s Democratic-leaning areas with more rural counties have kept it rated a toss-up or lean Democratic by most forecasters. A July 2026 poll of likely voters showed Bohannan ahead 40%–35% with independent Michael Bridgford at 11%. Primaries in June confirmed both major-party nominees, and the broader 2026 midterm environment—marked by typical out-party gains and national polling trends—has reinforced trader positioning toward a Democratic flip. Resolution occurs after the November 3 general election once certified results determine the winner.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 16, 2025, 11:57 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$27,498วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 16, 2025, 11:57 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Democratic nominee Christina Bohannan holds a 71% implied probability in the IA-01 House race, while incumbent Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks sits at 28.5%.**
The district’s narrow 2024 margin and its mix of Iowa City’s Democratic-leaning areas with more rural counties have kept it rated a toss-up or lean Democratic by most forecasters. A July 2026 poll of likely voters showed Bohannan ahead 40%–35% with independent Michael Bridgford at 11%. Primaries in June confirmed both major-party nominees, and the broader 2026 midterm environment—marked by typical out-party gains and national polling trends—has reinforced trader positioning toward a Democratic flip. Resolution occurs after the November 3 general election once certified results determine the winner.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$27,498วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 16, 2025, 11:57 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...**Democratic nominee Christina Bohannan holds a 71% implied probability in the IA-01 House race, while incumbent Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks sits at 28.5%.** The district’s narrow 2024 margin and its mix of Iowa City’s Democratic-leaning areas with more rural counties have kept it rated a toss-up or lean Democratic by most forecasters. A July 2026 poll of likely voters showed Bohannan ahead 40%–35% with independent Michael Bridgford at 11%. Primaries in June confirmed both major-party nominees, and the broader 2026 midterm environment—marked by typical out-party gains and national polling trends—has reinforced trader positioning toward a Democratic flip. Resolution occurs after the November 3 general election once certified results determine the winner.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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