**Trader consensus strongly favors a 13°C minimum in Beijing on September 12, 2026, reflecting model consensus and real-time observations of radiative cooling under clear skies and light southerly winds.** Official forecasts from sources aligned with GFS and local analyses project overnight lows near 15–18°C (59–64°F), with the market-implied 98% probability on 13°C indicating traders anticipate the official station reading—likely at a standard meteorological site—will settle at that threshold after accounting for urban heat island effects and precise timing of the daily minimum. Stable high-pressure conditions, dew points around 13–14°C, and minimal cloud cover have supported efficient nocturnal cooling consistent with late-summer climatology, where the long-term average low is approximately 16.9°C. The narrow implied-probability distribution around 13°C underscores high confidence in the absence of frontal systems or significant moisture that could alter the temperature trajectory before resolution. Only an unexpected late-evening surge in wind or measurement discrepancy at the reference station would realistically shift the outcome.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in Beijing on September 12?
Lowest temperature in Beijing on September 12?
13°C 98%
11°C 46%
10°C or below 15%
14°C <1%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 12, 2026
10°C or below
15%
11°C
46%
12°C
-
13°C
98%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
13°C 98%
11°C 46%
10°C or below 15%
14°C <1%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 12, 2026
10°C or below
$10 ปริมาณ
15%
11°C
$0 ปริมาณ
46%
12°C
$25 ปริมาณ
-
13°C
$66 ปริมาณ
98%
14°C
$386 ปริมาณ
<1%
15°C
$126 ปริมาณ
<1%
16°C
$90 ปริมาณ
<1%
17°C
$500 ปริมาณ
<1%
18°C
$25 ปริมาณ
<1%
19°C
$227 ปริมาณ
<1%
20°C or higher
$35 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors a 13°C minimum in Beijing on September 12, 2026, reflecting model consensus and real-time observations of radiative cooling under clear skies and light southerly winds.** Official forecasts from sources aligned with GFS and local analyses project overnight lows near 15–18°C (59–64°F), with the market-implied 98% probability on 13°C indicating traders anticipate the official station reading—likely at a standard meteorological site—will settle at that threshold after accounting for urban heat island effects and precise timing of the daily minimum. Stable high-pressure conditions, dew points around 13–14°C, and minimal cloud cover have supported efficient nocturnal cooling consistent with late-summer climatology, where the long-term average low is approximately 16.9°C. The narrow implied-probability distribution around 13°C underscores high confidence in the absence of frontal systems or significant moisture that could alter the temperature trajectory before resolution. Only an unexpected late-evening surge in wind or measurement discrepancy at the reference station would realistically shift the outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,490วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 12, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors a 13°C minimum in Beijing on September 12, 2026, reflecting model consensus and real-time observations of radiative cooling under clear skies and light southerly winds.** Official forecasts from sources aligned with GFS and local analyses project overnight lows near 15–18°C (59–64°F), with the market-implied 98% probability on 13°C indicating traders anticipate the official station reading—likely at a standard meteorological site—will settle at that threshold after accounting for urban heat island effects and precise timing of the daily minimum. Stable high-pressure conditions, dew points around 13–14°C, and minimal cloud cover have supported efficient nocturnal cooling consistent with late-summer climatology, where the long-term average low is approximately 16.9°C. The narrow implied-probability distribution around 13°C underscores high confidence in the absence of frontal systems or significant moisture that could alter the temperature trajectory before resolution. Only an unexpected late-evening surge in wind or measurement discrepancy at the reference station would realistically shift the outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,490วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 12, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus strongly favors a 13°C minimum in Beijing on September 12, 2026, reflecting model consensus and real-time observations of radiative cooling under clear skies and light southerly winds.** Official forecasts from sources aligned with GFS and local analyses project overnight lows near 15–18°C (59–64°F), with the market-implied 98% probability on 13°C indicating traders anticipate the official station reading—likely at a standard meteorological site—will settle at that threshold after accounting for urban heat island effects and precise timing of the daily minimum. Stable high-pressure conditions, dew points around 13–14°C, and minimal cloud cover have supported efficient nocturnal cooling consistent with late-summer climatology, where the long-term average low is approximately 16.9°C. The narrow implied-probability distribution around 13°C underscores high confidence in the absence of frontal systems or significant moisture that could alter the temperature trajectory before resolution. Only an unexpected late-evening surge in wind or measurement discrepancy at the reference station would realistically shift the outcome.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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