The market's decisive 100% implied probability on 28°C reflects official minimum temperature readings from the Hong Kong Observatory confirming this exact value for May 24. Late-May climatology in the region, driven by strengthening southerly flow and subtropical high pressure, typically produces nighttime lows in the 26–29°C range, with 28°C falling squarely within the observed historical distribution and recent model consensus. No significant cold advection or cloud-cover anomalies altered the diurnal cycle. Resolution hinges on the Observatory’s finalized 24-hour minimum at the reference station; only an unreported data revision or station-specific anomaly would shift the outcome, both of which remain statistically improbable given the stability of the measurement network.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 24?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 24?
28°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$17,327 ปริมาณ
$17,327 ปริมาณ
May 24, 2026
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
28°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$17,327 ปริมาณ
$17,327 ปริมาณ
May 24, 2026
21°C or below
$702 ปริมาณ
No
22°C
$603 ปริมาณ
No
23°C
$886 ปริมาณ
No
24°C
$1,715 ปริมาณ
No
25°C
$1,267 ปริมาณ
No
26°C
$2,655 ปริมาณ
No
27°C
$2,121 ปริมาณ
No
28°C
$2,998 ปริมาณ
Yes
29°C
$2,596 ปริมาณ
No
30°C
$1,052 ปริมาณ
No
31°C or higher
$733 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 24 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The market's decisive 100% implied probability on 28°C reflects official minimum temperature readings from the Hong Kong Observatory confirming this exact value for May 24. Late-May climatology in the region, driven by strengthening southerly flow and subtropical high pressure, typically produces nighttime lows in the 26–29°C range, with 28°C falling squarely within the observed historical distribution and recent model consensus. No significant cold advection or cloud-cover anomalies altered the diurnal cycle. Resolution hinges on the Observatory’s finalized 24-hour minimum at the reference station; only an unreported data revision or station-specific anomaly would shift the outcome, both of which remain statistically improbable given the stability of the measurement network.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 24 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 20, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$17,327วันสิ้นสุด
May 24, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 20, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 24 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The market's decisive 100% implied probability on 28°C reflects official minimum temperature readings from the Hong Kong Observatory confirming this exact value for May 24. Late-May climatology in the region, driven by strengthening southerly flow and subtropical high pressure, typically produces nighttime lows in the 26–29°C range, with 28°C falling squarely within the observed historical distribution and recent model consensus. No significant cold advection or cloud-cover anomalies altered the diurnal cycle. Resolution hinges on the Observatory’s finalized 24-hour minimum at the reference station; only an unreported data revision or station-specific anomaly would shift the outcome, both of which remain statistically improbable given the stability of the measurement network.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 24 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$17,327วันสิ้นสุด
May 24, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 20, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
The market's decisive 100% implied probability on 28°C reflects official minimum temperature readings from the Hong Kong Observatory confirming this exact value for May 24. Late-May climatology in the region, driven by strengthening southerly flow and subtropical high pressure, typically produces nighttime lows in the 26–29°C range, with 28°C falling squarely within the observed historical distribution and recent model consensus. No significant cold advection or cloud-cover anomalies altered the diurnal cycle. Resolution hinges on the Observatory’s finalized 24-hour minimum at the reference station; only an unreported data revision or station-specific anomaly would shift the outcome, both of which remain statistically improbable given the stability of the measurement network.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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