**Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to clearing skies and northwest winds on September 4, 2026, promoting radiative cooling after a humid, stormy period on September 3.** Forecasts from sources such as WeatherBug for Central Park show a low near 67°F under mostly clear conditions, while other runs range from the mid-60s to low-70s depending on cloud timing and dew-point trajectories. This spread creates tight market clustering around 70–75°F, reflecting trader assessment of model consensus versus local variability in urban heat-island effects and exact minimum timing. Historical September 4 lows average near 65°F, so current conditions favor a slightly milder outcome unless stronger cold-air advection develops. Updated model runs and NWS briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts that could shift implied probabilities.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in NYC on September 4?
Lowest temperature in NYC on September 4?
70-71°F 48%
74-75°F 46%
76-77°F 39%
72-73°F 31%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 4, 2026
63°F or below
2%
64-65°F
2%
66-67°F
3%
68-69°F
7%
70-71°F
48%
72-73°F
31%
74-75°F
46%
76-77°F
39%
78-79°F
7%
80-81°F
3%
82°F or higher
2%
70-71°F 48%
74-75°F 46%
76-77°F 39%
72-73°F 31%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 4, 2026
63°F or below
$0 ปริมาณ
2%
64-65°F
$0 ปริมาณ
2%
66-67°F
$0 ปริมาณ
3%
68-69°F
$0 ปริมาณ
7%
70-71°F
$0 ปริมาณ
48%
72-73°F
$0 ปริมาณ
31%
74-75°F
$0 ปริมาณ
46%
76-77°F
$0 ปริมาณ
39%
78-79°F
$0 ปริมาณ
7%
80-81°F
$0 ปริมาณ
3%
82°F or higher
$0 ปริมาณ
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to clearing skies and northwest winds on September 4, 2026, promoting radiative cooling after a humid, stormy period on September 3.** Forecasts from sources such as WeatherBug for Central Park show a low near 67°F under mostly clear conditions, while other runs range from the mid-60s to low-70s depending on cloud timing and dew-point trajectories.
This spread creates tight market clustering around 70–75°F, reflecting trader assessment of model consensus versus local variability in urban heat-island effects and exact minimum timing. Historical September 4 lows average near 65°F, so current conditions favor a slightly milder outcome unless stronger cold-air advection develops. Updated model runs and NWS briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts that could shift implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 2, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$0วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 2, 2026, 3:29 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to clearing skies and northwest winds on September 4, 2026, promoting radiative cooling after a humid, stormy period on September 3.** Forecasts from sources such as WeatherBug for Central Park show a low near 67°F under mostly clear conditions, while other runs range from the mid-60s to low-70s depending on cloud timing and dew-point trajectories.
This spread creates tight market clustering around 70–75°F, reflecting trader assessment of model consensus versus local variability in urban heat-island effects and exact minimum timing. Historical September 4 lows average near 65°F, so current conditions favor a slightly milder outcome unless stronger cold-air advection develops. Updated model runs and NWS briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts that could shift implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$0วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 2, 2026, 3:29 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...**Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to clearing skies and northwest winds on September 4, 2026, promoting radiative cooling after a humid, stormy period on September 3.** Forecasts from sources such as WeatherBug for Central Park show a low near 67°F under mostly clear conditions, while other runs range from the mid-60s to low-70s depending on cloud timing and dew-point trajectories. This spread creates tight market clustering around 70–75°F, reflecting trader assessment of model consensus versus local variability in urban heat-island effects and exact minimum timing. Historical September 4 lows average near 65°F, so current conditions favor a slightly milder outcome unless stronger cold-air advection develops. Updated model runs and NWS briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts that could shift implied probabilities.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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