Forecast models from agencies including MetService and international ensembles indicate Wellington's overnight minimum on September 1 will reach 5°C, consistent with clear skies, moderate northwesterly winds, and radiative cooling under stable high pressure. This aligns with early-spring climatology where clear nights commonly produce lows near the seasonal average of 7–9°C, but current guidance shows slightly cooler conditions. The 99.4% market-implied probability for exactly 5°C reflects strong model consensus and limited uncertainty in the final hours before resolution. Only a significant forecast bust from unexpected cloud cover, stronger winds, or localized urban heat effects would realistically shift the recorded minimum to 4°C or 6°C.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in Wellington on September 1?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 1?
5°C 99.4%
7°C <1%
3°C <1%
4°C <1%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 1, 2026
2°C or below
<1%
3°C
1%
4°C
1%
5°C
99%
6°C
<1%
7°C
1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C or higher
<1%
5°C 99.4%
7°C <1%
3°C <1%
4°C <1%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 1, 2026
2°C or below
$397 ปริมาณ
<1%
3°C
$463 ปริมาณ
1%
4°C
$177 ปริมาณ
1%
5°C
$342 ปริมาณ
99%
6°C
$421 ปริมาณ
<1%
7°C
$1,343 ปริมาณ
1%
8°C
$1,380 ปริมาณ
<1%
9°C
$1,170 ปริมาณ
<1%
10°C
$134 ปริมาณ
<1%
11°C
$219 ปริมาณ
<1%
12°C or higher
$172 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies including MetService and international ensembles indicate Wellington's overnight minimum on September 1 will reach 5°C, consistent with clear skies, moderate northwesterly winds, and radiative cooling under stable high pressure. This aligns with early-spring climatology where clear nights commonly produce lows near the seasonal average of 7–9°C, but current guidance shows slightly cooler conditions. The 99.4% market-implied probability for exactly 5°C reflects strong model consensus and limited uncertainty in the final hours before resolution. Only a significant forecast bust from unexpected cloud cover, stronger winds, or localized urban heat effects would realistically shift the recorded minimum to 4°C or 6°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 30, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$6,217วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 30, 2026, 12:29 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies including MetService and international ensembles indicate Wellington's overnight minimum on September 1 will reach 5°C, consistent with clear skies, moderate northwesterly winds, and radiative cooling under stable high pressure. This aligns with early-spring climatology where clear nights commonly produce lows near the seasonal average of 7–9°C, but current guidance shows slightly cooler conditions. The 99.4% market-implied probability for exactly 5°C reflects strong model consensus and limited uncertainty in the final hours before resolution. Only a significant forecast bust from unexpected cloud cover, stronger winds, or localized urban heat effects would realistically shift the recorded minimum to 4°C or 6°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$6,217วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 30, 2026, 12:29 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from agencies including MetService and international ensembles indicate Wellington's overnight minimum on September 1 will reach 5°C, consistent with clear skies, moderate northwesterly winds, and radiative cooling under stable high pressure. This aligns with early-spring climatology where clear nights commonly produce lows near the seasonal average of 7–9°C, but current guidance shows slightly cooler conditions. The 99.4% market-implied probability for exactly 5°C reflects strong model consensus and limited uncertainty in the final hours before resolution. Only a significant forecast bust from unexpected cloud cover, stronger winds, or localized urban heat effects would realistically shift the recorded minimum to 4°C or 6°C.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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