**Forecast consensus from agencies like MetService and international models points to a daily maximum of 12–13°C in Wellington on September 1, 2026, aligning with the market's heaviest weighting on those outcomes.** Northwesterly winds and mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions are expected to limit warming, with afternoon peaks near 12°C per detailed hourly guidance and slight upward revisions in some runs supporting the 13°C probability. This matches typical early-spring climatology for the region (average September highs ~13–14°C), absent any strong warm advection or clear-sky radiative heating that could push readings to 14°C or higher. Traders appear to be pricing in the narrow uncertainty band around official point forecasts rather than outliers, given the consistency across recent model updates.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Wellington on September 1?
Highest temperature in Wellington on September 1?
13°C 61%
14°C 26%
12°C 13.9%
15°C 4%
ใหม่
$26,532 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$26,532 ปริมาณ
Sep 1, 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
14%
13°C
61%
14°C
28%
15°C
4%
16°C
1%
17°C
<1%
18°C or higher
<1%
13°C 61%
14°C 26%
12°C 13.9%
15°C 4%
ใหม่
$26,532 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$26,532 ปริมาณ
Sep 1, 2026
8°C or below
$267 ปริมาณ
<1%
9°C
$330 ปริมาณ
<1%
10°C
$371 ปริมาณ
<1%
11°C
$1,341 ปริมาณ
<1%
12°C
$3,182 ปริมาณ
14%
13°C
$4,897 ปริมาณ
61%
14°C
$5,400 ปริมาณ
28%
15°C
$3,513 ปริมาณ
4%
16°C
$2,253 ปริมาณ
1%
17°C
$1,716 ปริมาณ
<1%
18°C or higher
$3,260 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from agencies like MetService and international models points to a daily maximum of 12–13°C in Wellington on September 1, 2026, aligning with the market's heaviest weighting on those outcomes.**
Northwesterly winds and mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions are expected to limit warming, with afternoon peaks near 12°C per detailed hourly guidance and slight upward revisions in some runs supporting the 13°C probability. This matches typical early-spring climatology for the region (average September highs ~13–14°C), absent any strong warm advection or clear-sky radiative heating that could push readings to 14°C or higher. Traders appear to be pricing in the narrow uncertainty band around official point forecasts rather than outliers, given the consistency across recent model updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 30, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$26,532วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 30, 2026, 12:56 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from agencies like MetService and international models points to a daily maximum of 12–13°C in Wellington on September 1, 2026, aligning with the market's heaviest weighting on those outcomes.**
Northwesterly winds and mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions are expected to limit warming, with afternoon peaks near 12°C per detailed hourly guidance and slight upward revisions in some runs supporting the 13°C probability. This matches typical early-spring climatology for the region (average September highs ~13–14°C), absent any strong warm advection or clear-sky radiative heating that could push readings to 14°C or higher. Traders appear to be pricing in the narrow uncertainty band around official point forecasts rather than outliers, given the consistency across recent model updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$26,532วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 30, 2026, 12:56 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus from agencies like MetService and international models points to a daily maximum of 12–13°C in Wellington on September 1, 2026, aligning with the market's heaviest weighting on those outcomes.** Northwesterly winds and mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions are expected to limit warming, with afternoon peaks near 12°C per detailed hourly guidance and slight upward revisions in some runs supporting the 13°C probability. This matches typical early-spring climatology for the region (average September highs ~13–14°C), absent any strong warm advection or clear-sky radiative heating that could push readings to 14°C or higher. Traders appear to be pricing in the narrow uncertainty band around official point forecasts rather than outliers, given the consistency across recent model updates.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย