Incumbent Democratic Senator Ed Markey maintains a commanding lead in recent Democratic primary polls, including Suffolk University/Boston Globe (47% to Seth Moulton's 30%) and University of New Hampshire surveys from early April 2026, reinforcing trader consensus on a 94.5% implied probability for a Democratic general election winner on November 3. Massachusetts has elected only two Republican senators since 1961, and general election hypotheticals show Democrats ahead by 20-36 points even against strong GOP names like former Governor Charlie Baker, who declined to run. The sparse Republican field, led by attorney John Deaton, underscores the state's entrenched partisan advantage. Scenarios challenging this include a primary upset yielding a weaker Democratic nominee, Markey's health concerns at age 80, a late high-profile GOP recruit, or a national Republican wave amid midterms.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วMassachusetts Senate Election Winner
Massachusetts Senate Election Winner
$12,304 ปริมาณ
$12,304 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
95%
Republican
5%
$12,304 ปริมาณ
$12,304 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
$7,735 ปริมาณ
95%
Republican
$4,570 ปริมาณ
5%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Massachusetts U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Ed Markey maintains a commanding lead in recent Democratic primary polls, including Suffolk University/Boston Globe (47% to Seth Moulton's 30%) and University of New Hampshire surveys from early April 2026, reinforcing trader consensus on a 94.5% implied probability for a Democratic general election winner on November 3. Massachusetts has elected only two Republican senators since 1961, and general election hypotheticals show Democrats ahead by 20-36 points even against strong GOP names like former Governor Charlie Baker, who declined to run. The sparse Republican field, led by attorney John Deaton, underscores the state's entrenched partisan advantage. Scenarios challenging this include a primary upset yielding a weaker Democratic nominee, Markey's health concerns at age 80, a late high-profile GOP recruit, or a national Republican wave amid midterms.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Massachusetts U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$12,304วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Massachusetts U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Ed Markey maintains a commanding lead in recent Democratic primary polls, including Suffolk University/Boston Globe (47% to Seth Moulton's 30%) and University of New Hampshire surveys from early April 2026, reinforcing trader consensus on a 94.5% implied probability for a Democratic general election winner on November 3. Massachusetts has elected only two Republican senators since 1961, and general election hypotheticals show Democrats ahead by 20-36 points even against strong GOP names like former Governor Charlie Baker, who declined to run. The sparse Republican field, led by attorney John Deaton, underscores the state's entrenched partisan advantage. Scenarios challenging this include a primary upset yielding a weaker Democratic nominee, Markey's health concerns at age 80, a late high-profile GOP recruit, or a national Republican wave amid midterms.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Massachusetts U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$12,304วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Senator Ed Markey maintains a commanding lead in recent Democratic primary polls, including Suffolk University/Boston Globe (47% to Seth Moulton's 30%) and University of New Hampshire surveys from early April 2026, reinforcing trader consensus on a 94.5% implied probability for a Democratic general election winner on November 3. Massachusetts has elected only two Republican senators since 1961, and general election hypotheticals show Democrats ahead by 20-36 points even against strong GOP names like former Governor Charlie Baker, who declined to run. The sparse Republican field, led by attorney John Deaton, underscores the state's entrenched partisan advantage. Scenarios challenging this include a primary upset yielding a weaker Democratic nominee, Markey's health concerns at age 80, a late high-profile GOP recruit, or a national Republican wave amid midterms.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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