US intelligence assessments, including the ODNI’s March 2026 threat report, indicate Chinese leaders lack a fixed timeline or current plan for invading Taiwan, favoring coercive gray-zone tactics, economic pressure, and political measures to advance unification instead. Ongoing PLA exercises, naval transits, and coast guard operations through mid-2026 have remained below invasion thresholds, while Taiwan’s enhanced combat-readiness drills and US diplomatic engagement with Beijing reinforce deterrence. Traders assign 96% probability to no invasion by year-end because amphibious capabilities, logistics risks, and potential international intervention continue to impose high costs. Late developments such as miscalculation during drills, abrupt shifts in leadership priorities, or unforeseen external triggers could still alter the trajectory before December 31.