**No at 75% reflects the absence of any confirmed 5kt-or-greater bolide in 2026 so far and the low base rate of such events.** NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) fireball database, the primary resolution source, has recorded only smaller impacts this year, consistent with the typical size distribution of detected airbursts. Ongoing NEO surveys and close-approach monitoring through September 2026 show no catalogued objects on trajectories capable of delivering 5 kilotons TNT equivalent, while recent predicted impacts involved sub-10-meter objects well below the threshold. Historical frequency estimates place 5kt-scale events at roughly one per year or less globally, often undetected over oceans, supporting trader consensus that the remaining months are unlikely to produce a qualifying strike absent an unexpected discovery. Continuous CNEOS updates and any new survey detections remain the key near-term variables.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
21% tsansa
$314,157 Vol.
$314,157 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
21% tsansa
$314,157 Vol.
$314,157 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No at 75% reflects the absence of any confirmed 5kt-or-greater bolide in 2026 so far and the low base rate of such events.** NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) fireball database, the primary resolution source, has recorded only smaller impacts this year, consistent with the typical size distribution of detected airbursts. Ongoing NEO surveys and close-approach monitoring through September 2026 show no catalogued objects on trajectories capable of delivering 5 kilotons TNT equivalent, while recent predicted impacts involved sub-10-meter objects well below the threshold. Historical frequency estimates place 5kt-scale events at roughly one per year or less globally, often undetected over oceans, supporting trader consensus that the remaining months are unlikely to produce a qualifying strike absent an unexpected discovery. Continuous CNEOS updates and any new survey detections remain the key near-term variables.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$314,157Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Mar 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No at 75% reflects the absence of any confirmed 5kt-or-greater bolide in 2026 so far and the low base rate of such events.** NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) fireball database, the primary resolution source, has recorded only smaller impacts this year, consistent with the typical size distribution of detected airbursts. Ongoing NEO surveys and close-approach monitoring through September 2026 show no catalogued objects on trajectories capable of delivering 5 kilotons TNT equivalent, while recent predicted impacts involved sub-10-meter objects well below the threshold. Historical frequency estimates place 5kt-scale events at roughly one per year or less globally, often undetected over oceans, supporting trader consensus that the remaining months are unlikely to produce a qualifying strike absent an unexpected discovery. Continuous CNEOS updates and any new survey detections remain the key near-term variables.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$314,157Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Mar 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**No at 75% reflects the absence of any confirmed 5kt-or-greater bolide in 2026 so far and the low base rate of such events.** NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) fireball database, the primary resolution source, has recorded only smaller impacts this year, consistent with the typical size distribution of detected airbursts. Ongoing NEO surveys and close-approach monitoring through September 2026 show no catalogued objects on trajectories capable of delivering 5 kilotons TNT equivalent, while recent predicted impacts involved sub-10-meter objects well below the threshold. Historical frequency estimates place 5kt-scale events at roughly one per year or less globally, often undetected over oceans, supporting trader consensus that the remaining months are unlikely to produce a qualifying strike absent an unexpected discovery. Continuous CNEOS updates and any new survey detections remain the key near-term variables.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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