**Clear to partly cloudy skies under high-pressure influence, combined with light winds and radiative cooling overnight, are positioning Chengdu's September 2 minimum temperature near 18–22°C according to consensus forecasts.** Local meteorological guidance from the Chengdu Meteorological Observatory highlights control by the Qinghai high-pressure system, producing mostly clear conditions after recent daytime peaks of 35.6°C on September 1. This setup promotes efficient nocturnal heat loss through outgoing longwave radiation, with minimal cloud cover and wind speeds below 3 on the Beaufort scale limiting turbulent mixing. Multiple sources converge on overnight lows of 18–21°C for the night into September 2, consistent with early-September climatology where daily minima typically fall in the low 20s°C before seasonal cooling accelerates. Model differences in exact timing of any residual cloudiness or subtle wind shifts explain the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 19–22°C. Official outlooks note a gradual moderation from peak heat without immediate precipitation, keeping the distribution centered on these values rather than extremes. Traders appear to weigh recent observational trends and short-range model runs heavily, as fresh forecast updates from agencies like the Chengdu station will refine the precise minimum before resolution.