**Recent polling aggregates ahead of New Zealand’s November 7, 2026 general election show National and Labour holding the top two spots in party vote, with support in the high 20s to low 30s percent range, leaving a competitive race for third place among smaller parties.** New Zealand First has maintained steady double-digit support across multiple surveys through mid-2026, often in the 8–12% band, aided by its role in the governing coalition, Winston Peters’ public profile, and recent policy announcements on immigration reform. The Greens have shown upward movement in several late-summer polls, reaching 11–14% in some readings, but remain slightly behind NZ First in most aggregates. ACT has climbed toward 8–10.5% in recent data yet trails the leaders for third. Minor parties including Te Pāti Māori and the Opportunity Party sit near or below the 5% threshold in most surveys, limiting their prospects for a top-three finish. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these patterns, treating NZ First as the narrow frontrunner for third while assigning the Greens a strong but secondary probability. With roughly eight weeks until election day, further shifts in minor-party support or turnout among key voter blocs could still influence the final ordering.