Persistent hot, dry conditions across the southern Plains, lower Midwest, and Mississippi Valley have driven rapid drought intensification, with the latest U.S. Drought Monitor (data through September 8) showing D4 exceptional drought already emerging in isolated Arkansas counties and expanding D3 areas nearby. This pattern, combined with below-normal precipitation and high evapotranspiration rates, positions multiple central states for D4 thresholds on the upcoming map for the week of September 15. Trader consensus favoring 10 or more states reflects expectations of continued expansion before any relief from forecast precipitation in parts of the region, while lower probabilities for fewer states align with historical rarity of widespread D4 and potential short-term model shifts in steering patterns or rainfall timing.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateHow many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 15, 2026?
How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 15, 2026?
10 or more states 81%
3-4 states 38%
1-2 states 36%
5-6 states 15%
BAGO
BAGO
Sep 17, 2026
0 states
1%
1-2 states
36%
3-4 states
38%
5-6 states
15%
7-9 states
15%
10 or more states
81%
10 or more states 81%
3-4 states 38%
1-2 states 36%
5-6 states 15%
BAGO
BAGO
Sep 17, 2026
0 states
$21 Vol.
1%
1-2 states
$0 Vol.
36%
3-4 states
$0 Vol.
38%
5-6 states
$0 Vol.
15%
7-9 states
$0 Vol.
15%
10 or more states
$0 Vol.
81%
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 15, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.Persistent hot, dry conditions across the southern Plains, lower Midwest, and Mississippi Valley have driven rapid drought intensification, with the latest U.S. Drought Monitor (data through September 8) showing D4 exceptional drought already emerging in isolated Arkansas counties and expanding D3 areas nearby. This pattern, combined with below-normal precipitation and high evapotranspiration rates, positions multiple central states for D4 thresholds on the upcoming map for the week of September 15. Trader consensus favoring 10 or more states reflects expectations of continued expansion before any relief from forecast precipitation in parts of the region, while lower probabilities for fewer states align with historical rarity of widespread D4 and potential short-term model shifts in steering patterns or rainfall timing.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 15, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Binuksan ang Market: Sep 10, 2026, 9:00 AM ET
Volume
$21Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 17, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 10, 2026, 9:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 15, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.Persistent hot, dry conditions across the southern Plains, lower Midwest, and Mississippi Valley have driven rapid drought intensification, with the latest U.S. Drought Monitor (data through September 8) showing D4 exceptional drought already emerging in isolated Arkansas counties and expanding D3 areas nearby. This pattern, combined with below-normal precipitation and high evapotranspiration rates, positions multiple central states for D4 thresholds on the upcoming map for the week of September 15. Trader consensus favoring 10 or more states reflects expectations of continued expansion before any relief from forecast precipitation in parts of the region, while lower probabilities for fewer states align with historical rarity of widespread D4 and potential short-term model shifts in steering patterns or rainfall timing.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 15, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Volume
$21Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 17, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 10, 2026, 9:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent hot, dry conditions across the southern Plains, lower Midwest, and Mississippi Valley have driven rapid drought intensification, with the latest U.S. Drought Monitor (data through September 8) showing D4 exceptional drought already emerging in isolated Arkansas counties and expanding D3 areas nearby. This pattern, combined with below-normal precipitation and high evapotranspiration rates, positions multiple central states for D4 thresholds on the upcoming map for the week of September 15. Trader consensus favoring 10 or more states reflects expectations of continued expansion before any relief from forecast precipitation in parts of the region, while lower probabilities for fewer states align with historical rarity of widespread D4 and potential short-term model shifts in steering patterns or rainfall timing.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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