**Turkish politics in mid-to-late 2026 features active discussion of constitutional reform tied to the PKK peace process, yet structural and political barriers continue to limit momentum toward a referendum announcement.** The ruling AKP-MHP alliance holds roughly 321–328 seats in the 600-member Grand National Assembly, falling short of the 360-vote threshold needed to trigger a referendum or the 400 votes for direct amendment. Opposition parties, including the CHP splinter New Party and others, have shown limited willingness to join drafting commissions or provide the cross-party support historically required for major constitutional changes. Recent statements from officials, including Justice Minister statements on the need for a new constitution and advisor comments linking PKK disarmament to drafting work, reflect ongoing preparations but no parliamentary bill or official schedule advancing to a nationwide vote by year-end. Traders therefore price the “No” outcome at 75 percent, reflecting the absence of the legislative arithmetic and consensus required for an announcement within the remaining months of 2026.