Democratic prospects of gaining House control in the November 2026 midterms represent the central driver behind the 73.5% implied probability that articles of impeachment will pass before January 2029. Prediction markets currently assign Democrats roughly an 80% chance of securing a majority, which would shift committee leadership and floor scheduling authority to the opposition party. Historical patterns show incoming House majorities from the opposing party frequently launch formal impeachment inquiries against sitting presidents, regardless of Senate conviction prospects. Recent 2025–2026 resolutions introduced by individual Democrats, including responses to administration statements on Iran, illustrate ongoing partisan momentum even while Republicans hold the majority. Traders appear to price in a post-midterm shift as the decisive catalyst, tempered by uncertainty over exact vote margins and any intervening legislative or legal developments.