Trader consensus prices an 89.5% implied probability on "No" for a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, reflecting the extreme rarity of such megathrust events—occurring globally at a rate of roughly one to three per century per USGS historical data—with none since the 2011 Tōhoku Mw 9.0-9.1 quake. The 2025 Mw 8.8 Kamchatka event, the largest recent shaker, fell short of the threshold despite foreshocks, reinforcing low odds as no anomalous seismic patterns in key subduction zones like Cascadia, Japan, or Sumatra signal imminent rupture. USGS real-time monitoring shows typical activity levels, and with under nine months left to resolution based on verified moment magnitude, the brief window amplifies the unlikelihood absent unforeseen precursors. New catalog updates could shift sentiment, but current data supports trader caution.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi2027 'den önce 9.0 veya üzeri deprem?
2027 'den önce 9.0 veya üzeri deprem?
Evet
$177,661 Hac.
$177,661 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
Evet
$177,661 Hac.
$177,661 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus prices an 89.5% implied probability on "No" for a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, reflecting the extreme rarity of such megathrust events—occurring globally at a rate of roughly one to three per century per USGS historical data—with none since the 2011 Tōhoku Mw 9.0-9.1 quake. The 2025 Mw 8.8 Kamchatka event, the largest recent shaker, fell short of the threshold despite foreshocks, reinforcing low odds as no anomalous seismic patterns in key subduction zones like Cascadia, Japan, or Sumatra signal imminent rupture. USGS real-time monitoring shows typical activity levels, and with under nine months left to resolution based on verified moment magnitude, the brief window amplifies the unlikelihood absent unforeseen precursors. New catalog updates could shift sentiment, but current data supports trader caution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Piyasa Açıldı: Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Hacim
$177,661Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus prices an 89.5% implied probability on "No" for a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, reflecting the extreme rarity of such megathrust events—occurring globally at a rate of roughly one to three per century per USGS historical data—with none since the 2011 Tōhoku Mw 9.0-9.1 quake. The 2025 Mw 8.8 Kamchatka event, the largest recent shaker, fell short of the threshold despite foreshocks, reinforcing low odds as no anomalous seismic patterns in key subduction zones like Cascadia, Japan, or Sumatra signal imminent rupture. USGS real-time monitoring shows typical activity levels, and with under nine months left to resolution based on verified moment magnitude, the brief window amplifies the unlikelihood absent unforeseen precursors. New catalog updates could shift sentiment, but current data supports trader caution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Hacim
$177,661Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices an 89.5% implied probability on "No" for a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, reflecting the extreme rarity of such megathrust events—occurring globally at a rate of roughly one to three per century per USGS historical data—with none since the 2011 Tōhoku Mw 9.0-9.1 quake. The 2025 Mw 8.8 Kamchatka event, the largest recent shaker, fell short of the threshold despite foreshocks, reinforcing low odds as no anomalous seismic patterns in key subduction zones like Cascadia, Japan, or Sumatra signal imminent rupture. USGS real-time monitoring shows typical activity levels, and with under nine months left to resolution based on verified moment magnitude, the brief window amplifies the unlikelihood absent unforeseen precursors. New catalog updates could shift sentiment, but current data supports trader caution.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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