Recent polls, including Datafolha on April 11 showing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 39% and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 35% in first-round voting intention, alongside Quaest and Futura/Apex surveys placing Flávio close behind at 32-37%, have solidified trader consensus on Flávio as the likely second-place finisher on October 4. Flávio's surge reflects consolidation of right-wing support following his father Jair Bolsonaro's electoral ban, outpacing rivals like Ronaldo Caiado (5-6%), Romeu Zema (3-4%), and Fernando Haddad. Lula's 21% implied probability for second stems from his narrow leads, vulnerable to shifts amid economic pressures and undecided voters (around 20%), with a potential runoff looming if no candidate exceeds 50%.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiFlávio Bolsonaro 61%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 23%
Renan Santos 7.0%
Fernando Haddad 5.0%
$2,882,177 Hac.
$2,882,177 Hac.
4 Eki 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro
61%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
23%
Renan Santos
7%
Fernando Haddad
5%
Camilo Santana
2%
Ronaldo Caiado
2%
Romeu Zema
1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 61%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 23%
Renan Santos 7.0%
Fernando Haddad 5.0%
$2,882,177 Hac.
$2,882,177 Hac.
4 Eki 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro
$27,731 Hac.
61%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
$32,852 Hac.
23%
Renan Santos
$968,378 Hac.
7%
Fernando Haddad
$634,049 Hac.
5%
Camilo Santana
$40,642 Hac.
2%
Ronaldo Caiado
$193,294 Hac.
2%
Romeu Zema
$124,435 Hac.
1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$34,983 Hac.
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
$28,883 Hac.
1%
Geraldo Alckmin
$75,078 Hac.
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
$596,304 Hac.
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
$82,372 Hac.
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
$11,362 Hac.
<1%
Eduardo Leite
$10,330 Hac.
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
$21,485 Hac.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls, including Datafolha on April 11 showing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 39% and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 35% in first-round voting intention, alongside Quaest and Futura/Apex surveys placing Flávio close behind at 32-37%, have solidified trader consensus on Flávio as the likely second-place finisher on October 4. Flávio's surge reflects consolidation of right-wing support following his father Jair Bolsonaro's electoral ban, outpacing rivals like Ronaldo Caiado (5-6%), Romeu Zema (3-4%), and Fernando Haddad. Lula's 21% implied probability for second stems from his narrow leads, vulnerable to shifts amid economic pressures and undecided voters (around 20%), with a potential runoff looming if no candidate exceeds 50%.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Piyasa Açıldı: Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Hacim
$2,882,177Bitiş Tarihi
4 Eki 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls, including Datafolha on April 11 showing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 39% and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 35% in first-round voting intention, alongside Quaest and Futura/Apex surveys placing Flávio close behind at 32-37%, have solidified trader consensus on Flávio as the likely second-place finisher on October 4. Flávio's surge reflects consolidation of right-wing support following his father Jair Bolsonaro's electoral ban, outpacing rivals like Ronaldo Caiado (5-6%), Romeu Zema (3-4%), and Fernando Haddad. Lula's 21% implied probability for second stems from his narrow leads, vulnerable to shifts amid economic pressures and undecided voters (around 20%), with a potential runoff looming if no candidate exceeds 50%.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Hacim
$2,882,177Bitiş Tarihi
4 Eki 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls, including Datafolha on April 11 showing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 39% and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 35% in first-round voting intention, alongside Quaest and Futura/Apex surveys placing Flávio close behind at 32-37%, have solidified trader consensus on Flávio as the likely second-place finisher on October 4. Flávio's surge reflects consolidation of right-wing support following his father Jair Bolsonaro's electoral ban, outpacing rivals like Ronaldo Caiado (5-6%), Romeu Zema (3-4%), and Fernando Haddad. Lula's 21% implied probability for second stems from his narrow leads, vulnerable to shifts amid economic pressures and undecided voters (around 20%), with a potential runoff looming if no candidate exceeds 50%.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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