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Dünya·Küresel Seçimler

Brezilya'nın cumhurbaşkanlığı ikinci tur seçimlerine hangi adaylar katılacak?

Market icon
Dünya·Küresel Seçimler

Brezilya'nın cumhurbaşkanlığı ikinci tur seçimlerine hangi adaylar katılacak?

$271,287 Hac.

4 Eki 2026
Polymarket

$271,287 Hac.

Polymarket

Flavio Bolsonaro

$15,796 Hac.

88%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$112,199 Hac.

79%

Fernando Haddad

$47,521 Hac.

17%

Tarcisio de Frietas

$65,781 Hac.

5%

Michelle Bolsonaro

$20,563 Hac.

4%

Jair Bolsonaro

$9,461 Hac.

3%

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent April polls from Datafolha, Futura, Ideia, and MDA show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in first-round voting intentions by 2-9 points, with Lula at 39-40% and Flávio at 30-37%, while no candidate nears the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff on October 25. Flávio has narrowed the gap over the past month by consolidating right-wing support following withdrawals like São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas' reelection bid and endorsements from his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro. High rejection rates for both frontrunners and 10-20% undecided voters heighten uncertainty ahead of the October 4 first round, with economic conditions and campaign momentum as key swing factors.

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Hacim
$271,287
Bitiş Tarihi
4 Eki 2026
Piyasa Açıldı
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent April polls from Datafolha, Futura, Ideia, and MDA show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in first-round voting intentions by 2-9 points, with Lula at 39-40% and Flávio at 30-37%, while no candidate nears the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff on October 25. Flávio has narrowed the gap over the past month by consolidating right-wing support following withdrawals like São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas' reelection bid and endorsements from his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro. High rejection rates for both frontrunners and 10-20% undecided voters heighten uncertainty ahead of the October 4 first round, with economic conditions and campaign momentum as key swing factors.

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Hacim
$271,287
Bitiş Tarihi
4 Eki 2026
Piyasa Açıldı
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.

Sıkça Sorulan Sorular

"Brezilya'nın cumhurbaşkanlığı ikinci tur seçimlerine hangi adaylar katılacak?", yatırımcıların ne olacağına inandıklarına göre hisse alıp sattığı 6 olası sonuçlu Polymarket'teki bir tahmin piyasasıdır. Mevcut lider sonuç 88% ile "Flavio Bolsonaro", ardından 79% ile "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" gelmektedir. Fiyatlar gerçek zamanlı kitle kaynaklı olasılıkları yansıtır. Örneğin, 88¢ fiyatlı bir hisse, piyasanın toplu olarak o sonuca 88% olasılık atadığı anlamına gelir. Bu oranlar, yatırımcılar yeni gelişmelere ve bilgilere tepki verdikçe sürekli değişir. Doğru sonuçtaki hisseler piyasa çözümlemesinde her biri 1$ karşılığında tahsil edilebilir.

Bugün itibarıyla "Brezilya'nın cumhurbaşkanlığı ikinci tur seçimlerine hangi adaylar katılacak?" toplam $271.3K işlem hacmi oluşturmuştur piyasa Sep 18, 2025 tarihinde açıldığından beri. Bu düzeyde işlem aktivitesi Polymarket topluluğundan güçlü katılımı yansıtır ve mevcut oranların derin bir piyasa katılımcıları havuzu tarafından bilgilendirilmesini sağlar. Bu sayfada canlı fiyat hareketlerini takip edebilir ve herhangi bir sonuç üzerinde doğrudan işlem yapabilirsiniz.

"Brezilya'nın cumhurbaşkanlığı ikinci tur seçimlerine hangi adaylar katılacak?" üzerinde işlem yapmak için bu sayfada listelenen 6 mevcut sonuca göz atın. Her sonuç, piyasanın ima edilen olasılığını temsil eden bir güncel fiyat gösterir. Pozisyon almak için en olası olduğuna inandığınız sonucu seçin, lehine işlem yapmak için "Evet" veya aleyhine işlem yapmak için "Hayır" seçin, miktarınızı girin ve "İşlem Yap"a tıklayın. Piyasa çözümlendiğinde seçtiğiniz sonuç doğruysa, "Evet" hisseleriniz her biri 1$ öder. Yanlışsa 0$ öderler. Ayrıca kâr kilitlemek veya zararı kesmek isterseniz çözümlemeden önce istediğiniz zaman hisselerinizi satabilirsiniz.

"Brezilya'nın cumhurbaşkanlığı ikinci tur seçimlerine hangi adaylar katılacak?" için mevcut favori 88% ile "Flavio Bolsonaro"dir, yani piyasa bu sonuca 88% olasılık atamaktadır. En yakın sonuç 79% ile "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva"dir. Bu oranlar yatırımcılar hisse alıp sattıkça gerçek zamanlı güncellenir, bu nedenle en olası olanın en son kolektif görüşünü yansıtır. Yeni bilgiler ortaya çıktıkça oranların nasıl değiştiğini takip etmek için sık sık kontrol edin veya bu sayfayı yer imlerine ekleyin.

"Brezilya'nın cumhurbaşkanlığı ikinci tur seçimlerine hangi adaylar katılacak?" için çözümleme kuralları, her sonucun kazanan olarak ilan edilmesi için tam olarak ne olması gerektiğini tanımlar — sonucu belirlemek için kullanılan resmi veri kaynakları dahil. Bu sayfadaki yorumların üzerindeki "Kurallar" bölümünde tam çözümleme kriterlerini inceleyebilirsiniz. İşlem yapmadan önce kuralları dikkatli bir şekilde okumanızı öneririz, çünkü bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğini yöneten kesin koşulları, istisnai durumları ve kaynakları belirtir.