Recent polls from Datafolha, Futura, and MDA conducted April 7-12 show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by narrow margins of 2.5 to 9 percentage points in first-round voting intentions, with Lula at 39-40% and Flávio at 30-37%, far short of the 50% needed for outright victory and pointing to a likely runoff on October 25. This tightening race, where Flávio has closed gaps seen in March surveys like AtlasIntel's 5.8-point Lula lead, drives trader consensus toward Lula da Silva <5% victory margin at 39.5% implied probability, followed by Lula 5-10% and Flávio <5%, reflecting the closely contested nature and undecided voters at 10-19%. Minor candidates like Renan Santos trail distant third, underscoring the binary dynamic ahead of the October 4 first round.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiBrezilya Cumhurbaşkanlığı Seçimi İlk Turu: Zafer Marjı
Brezilya Cumhurbaşkanlığı Seçimi İlk Turu: Zafer Marjı
Lula da Silva < %5 40%
Lula da Silva %5-10 22%
Flávio Bolsonaro <%5 19%
Flávio Bolsonaro %10+ 7.8%
$219,671 Hac.
$219,671 Hac.
4 Eki 2026
Lula da Silva %15+
4%
Lula da Silva %10-15
3%
Lula da Silva %5-10
22%
Lula da Silva < %5
40%
Flávio Bolsonaro %10+
8%
Flávio Bolsonaro %5-10
7%
Flávio Bolsonaro <%5
19%
Renan Santos Zaferi
5%
Tarcisio de Freitas Zaferi
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Zaferi
1%
Diğer
4%
Lula da Silva < %5 40%
Lula da Silva %5-10 22%
Flávio Bolsonaro <%5 19%
Flávio Bolsonaro %10+ 7.8%
$219,671 Hac.
$219,671 Hac.
4 Eki 2026
Lula da Silva %15+
$3,822 Hac.
4%
Lula da Silva %10-15
$1,621 Hac.
3%
Lula da Silva %5-10
$6,098 Hac.
22%
Lula da Silva < %5
$1,962 Hac.
40%
Flávio Bolsonaro %10+
$1,126 Hac.
8%
Flávio Bolsonaro %5-10
$1,310 Hac.
7%
Flávio Bolsonaro <%5
$2,760 Hac.
19%
Renan Santos Zaferi
$197,660 Hac.
5%
Tarcisio de Freitas Zaferi
$790 Hac.
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Zaferi
$1,024 Hac.
1%
Diğer
$1,497 Hac.
4%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from Datafolha, Futura, and MDA conducted April 7-12 show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by narrow margins of 2.5 to 9 percentage points in first-round voting intentions, with Lula at 39-40% and Flávio at 30-37%, far short of the 50% needed for outright victory and pointing to a likely runoff on October 25. This tightening race, where Flávio has closed gaps seen in March surveys like AtlasIntel's 5.8-point Lula lead, drives trader consensus toward Lula da Silva <5% victory margin at 39.5% implied probability, followed by Lula 5-10% and Flávio <5%, reflecting the closely contested nature and undecided voters at 10-19%. Minor candidates like Renan Santos trail distant third, underscoring the binary dynamic ahead of the October 4 first round.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Piyasa Açıldı: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Hacim
$219,671Bitiş Tarihi
4 Eki 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from Datafolha, Futura, and MDA conducted April 7-12 show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by narrow margins of 2.5 to 9 percentage points in first-round voting intentions, with Lula at 39-40% and Flávio at 30-37%, far short of the 50% needed for outright victory and pointing to a likely runoff on October 25. This tightening race, where Flávio has closed gaps seen in March surveys like AtlasIntel's 5.8-point Lula lead, drives trader consensus toward Lula da Silva <5% victory margin at 39.5% implied probability, followed by Lula 5-10% and Flávio <5%, reflecting the closely contested nature and undecided voters at 10-19%. Minor candidates like Renan Santos trail distant third, underscoring the binary dynamic ahead of the October 4 first round.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Hacim
$219,671Bitiş Tarihi
4 Eki 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls from Datafolha, Futura, and MDA conducted April 7-12 show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by narrow margins of 2.5 to 9 percentage points in first-round voting intentions, with Lula at 39-40% and Flávio at 30-37%, far short of the 50% needed for outright victory and pointing to a likely runoff on October 25. This tightening race, where Flávio has closed gaps seen in March surveys like AtlasIntel's 5.8-point Lula lead, drives trader consensus toward Lula da Silva <5% victory margin at 39.5% implied probability, followed by Lula 5-10% and Flávio <5%, reflecting the closely contested nature and undecided voters at 10-19%. Minor candidates like Renan Santos trail distant third, underscoring the binary dynamic ahead of the October 4 first round.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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