Skip to main content
Market icon
Siyaset·4 Kasım Seçimleri

CA -39 Ev Seçimi Kazananı

Market icon
Siyaset·4 Kasım Seçimleri

CA -39 Ev Seçimi Kazananı

$27,340 Hac.

Polymarket

$27,340 Hac.

Demokratik Parti

$21,224 Hac.

92%

Cumhuriyetçi Parti

$6,116 Hac.

8%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-39 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Mark Takano (D) commands trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability in the CA-39 House race, driven by his strong track record in the D+7 district, including a 56.7% general election win and 55.5% primary performance in 2024. Forecasters rate it Solid or Safe Democratic, bolstered by 2025 redistricting via Proposition 50 that favored Democrats. The June 2 top-two primary features Takano against Republican Steve Manos, with Takano poised to advance alongside the GOP nominee in November's general election. Scenarios to upend this include a Takano scandal, GOP national midterm tailwinds boosting turnout, or Manos mounting an unexpectedly competitive fundraising and grassroots campaign.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-39 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Hacim
$27,340
Bitiş Tarihi
3 Kas 2026
Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-39 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-39 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Mark Takano (D) commands trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability in the CA-39 House race, driven by his strong track record in the D+7 district, including a 56.7% general election win and 55.5% primary performance in 2024. Forecasters rate it Solid or Safe Democratic, bolstered by 2025 redistricting via Proposition 50 that favored Democrats. The June 2 top-two primary features Takano against Republican Steve Manos, with Takano poised to advance alongside the GOP nominee in November's general election. Scenarios to upend this include a Takano scandal, GOP national midterm tailwinds boosting turnout, or Manos mounting an unexpectedly competitive fundraising and grassroots campaign.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-39 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Hacim
$27,340
Bitiş Tarihi
3 Kas 2026
Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-39 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.

Sıkça Sorulan Sorular

"CA -39 Ev Seçimi Kazananı", yatırımcıların ne olacağına inandıklarına göre hisse alıp sattığı 2 olası sonuçlu Polymarket'teki bir tahmin piyasasıdır. Mevcut lider sonuç 92% ile "Demokratik Parti", ardından 8% ile "Cumhuriyetçi Parti" gelmektedir. Fiyatlar gerçek zamanlı kitle kaynaklı olasılıkları yansıtır. Örneğin, 92¢ fiyatlı bir hisse, piyasanın toplu olarak o sonuca 92% olasılık atadığı anlamına gelir. Bu oranlar, yatırımcılar yeni gelişmelere ve bilgilere tepki verdikçe sürekli değişir. Doğru sonuçtaki hisseler piyasa çözümlemesinde her biri 1$ karşılığında tahsil edilebilir.

Bugün itibarıyla "CA -39 Ev Seçimi Kazananı" toplam $27.3K işlem hacmi oluşturmuştur piyasa Jan 28, 2026 tarihinde açıldığından beri. Bu düzeyde işlem aktivitesi Polymarket topluluğundan güçlü katılımı yansıtır ve mevcut oranların derin bir piyasa katılımcıları havuzu tarafından bilgilendirilmesini sağlar. Bu sayfada canlı fiyat hareketlerini takip edebilir ve herhangi bir sonuç üzerinde doğrudan işlem yapabilirsiniz.

"CA -39 Ev Seçimi Kazananı" üzerinde işlem yapmak için bu sayfada listelenen 2 mevcut sonuca göz atın. Her sonuç, piyasanın ima edilen olasılığını temsil eden bir güncel fiyat gösterir. Pozisyon almak için en olası olduğuna inandığınız sonucu seçin, lehine işlem yapmak için "Evet" veya aleyhine işlem yapmak için "Hayır" seçin, miktarınızı girin ve "İşlem Yap"a tıklayın. Piyasa çözümlendiğinde seçtiğiniz sonuç doğruysa, "Evet" hisseleriniz her biri 1$ öder. Yanlışsa 0$ öderler. Ayrıca kâr kilitlemek veya zararı kesmek isterseniz çözümlemeden önce istediğiniz zaman hisselerinizi satabilirsiniz.

"CA -39 Ev Seçimi Kazananı" için mevcut favori 92% ile "Demokratik Parti"dir, yani piyasa bu sonuca 92% olasılık atamaktadır. En yakın sonuç 8% ile "Cumhuriyetçi Parti"dir. Bu oranlar yatırımcılar hisse alıp sattıkça gerçek zamanlı güncellenir, bu nedenle en olası olanın en son kolektif görüşünü yansıtır. Yeni bilgiler ortaya çıktıkça oranların nasıl değiştiğini takip etmek için sık sık kontrol edin veya bu sayfayı yer imlerine ekleyin.

"CA -39 Ev Seçimi Kazananı" için çözümleme kuralları, her sonucun kazanan olarak ilan edilmesi için tam olarak ne olması gerektiğini tanımlar — sonucu belirlemek için kullanılan resmi veri kaynakları dahil. Bu sayfadaki yorumların üzerindeki "Kurallar" bölümünde tam çözümleme kriterlerini inceleyebilirsiniz. İşlem yapmadan önce kuralları dikkatli bir şekilde okumanızı öneririz, çünkü bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğini yöneten kesin koşulları, istisnai durumları ve kaynakları belirtir.