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Siyaset·4 Kasım Seçimleri

FL-04 House Election Winner

Market icon
Siyaset·4 Kasım Seçimleri

FL-04 House Election Winner

YENİ
Polymarket
YENİ

Republican Party

$4,481 Hac.

83%

Democratic Party

$2,834 Hac.

14%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean holds a commanding position in Florida's 4th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report with an R+5 partisan voting index, driving trader consensus to an 83% implied probability for the Republican Party. Bean won reelection in 2024 by 15 points (57%-43%) against Democrat LaShonda Holloway and boasts over $1 million cash-on-hand as of late 2025, dwarfing leading Democratic primary challenger Michael Kirwan's $183,000. Recent momentum for Democrats includes former Rep. Al Lawson's March 25 endorsement of Kirwan, but fragmented primaries on August 18 and the district's conservative lean in Republican-trifecta Florida sustain the GOP edge ahead of the November 3 general election.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Hacim
$7,314
Bitiş Tarihi
3 Kas 2026
Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean holds a commanding position in Florida's 4th Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report with an R+5 partisan voting index, driving trader consensus to an 83% implied probability for the Republican Party. Bean won reelection in 2024 by 15 points (57%-43%) against Democrat LaShonda Holloway and boasts over $1 million cash-on-hand as of late 2025, dwarfing leading Democratic primary challenger Michael Kirwan's $183,000. Recent momentum for Democrats includes former Rep. Al Lawson's March 25 endorsement of Kirwan, but fragmented primaries on August 18 and the district's conservative lean in Republican-trifecta Florida sustain the GOP edge ahead of the November 3 general election.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Hacim
$7,314
Bitiş Tarihi
3 Kas 2026
Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.

Sıkça Sorulan Sorular

"FL-04 House Election Winner", yatırımcıların ne olacağına inandıklarına göre hisse alıp sattığı 2 olası sonuçlu Polymarket'teki bir tahmin piyasasıdır. Mevcut lider sonuç 83% ile "Republican Party", ardından 14% ile "Democratic Party" gelmektedir. Fiyatlar gerçek zamanlı kitle kaynaklı olasılıkları yansıtır. Örneğin, 83¢ fiyatlı bir hisse, piyasanın toplu olarak o sonuca 83% olasılık atadığı anlamına gelir. Bu oranlar, yatırımcılar yeni gelişmelere ve bilgilere tepki verdikçe sürekli değişir. Doğru sonuçtaki hisseler piyasa çözümlemesinde her biri 1$ karşılığında tahsil edilebilir.

"FL-04 House Election Winner" Polymarket'te yeni oluşturulmuş bir piyasadır, Jan 28, 2026 tarihinde açıldı. Erken bir piyasa olarak, ilk yatırımcılar arasında yer alarak oranları belirleme ve piyasanın ilk fiyat sinyallerini oluşturma fırsatına sahipsiniz. Ayrıca piyasa zaman içinde ilgi kazandıkça hacmi ve işlem aktivitesini takip etmek için bu sayfayı yer imlerine ekleyebilirsiniz.

"FL-04 House Election Winner" üzerinde işlem yapmak için bu sayfada listelenen 2 mevcut sonuca göz atın. Her sonuç, piyasanın ima edilen olasılığını temsil eden bir güncel fiyat gösterir. Pozisyon almak için en olası olduğuna inandığınız sonucu seçin, lehine işlem yapmak için "Evet" veya aleyhine işlem yapmak için "Hayır" seçin, miktarınızı girin ve "İşlem Yap"a tıklayın. Piyasa çözümlendiğinde seçtiğiniz sonuç doğruysa, "Evet" hisseleriniz her biri 1$ öder. Yanlışsa 0$ öderler. Ayrıca kâr kilitlemek veya zararı kesmek isterseniz çözümlemeden önce istediğiniz zaman hisselerinizi satabilirsiniz.

"FL-04 House Election Winner" için mevcut favori 83% ile "Republican Party"dir, yani piyasa bu sonuca 83% olasılık atamaktadır. En yakın sonuç 14% ile "Democratic Party"dir. Bu oranlar yatırımcılar hisse alıp sattıkça gerçek zamanlı güncellenir, bu nedenle en olası olanın en son kolektif görüşünü yansıtır. Yeni bilgiler ortaya çıktıkça oranların nasıl değiştiğini takip etmek için sık sık kontrol edin veya bu sayfayı yer imlerine ekleyin.

"FL-04 House Election Winner" için çözümleme kuralları, her sonucun kazanan olarak ilan edilmesi için tam olarak ne olması gerektiğini tanımlar — sonucu belirlemek için kullanılan resmi veri kaynakları dahil. Bu sayfadaki yorumların üzerindeki "Kurallar" bölümünde tam çözümleme kriterlerini inceleyebilirsiniz. İşlem yapmadan önce kuralları dikkatli bir şekilde okumanızı öneririz, çünkü bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğini yöneten kesin koşulları, istisnai durumları ve kaynakları belirtir.