Incumbent Rep. Dusty Johnson's departure for the 2026 gubernatorial race leaves South Dakota's at-large House seat open, but trader consensus heavily favors Republicans at 91.5% implied probability, reflecting the district's deep-red history—GOP margins exceeded 70% in recent cycles—and frontrunner Attorney General Marty Jackley's commanding position in the June 2 Republican primary, where a March poll showed him at 51% versus 7% for challenger James Bialota amid $922,000 cash-on-hand advantage and Trump endorsement. Democrats' presumptive nominee Nikki Gronli trails in fundraising with under $100,000 raised. Petition challenges to Jackley were recently dismissed, solidifying the field post-March 31 filing deadline. Barring a primary upset, nominee scandal, health issues, or rare national Democratic midterm wave, the outlook remains firmly Republican.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiSD-AL House Election Winner
SD-AL House Election Winner
YENİ
YENİ
3 Kas 2026
Republican Party
92%
Democratic Party
9%
YENİ
YENİ
3 Kas 2026
Republican Party
$2,855 Hac.
92%
Democratic Party
$1,722 Hac.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Dusty Johnson's departure for the 2026 gubernatorial race leaves South Dakota's at-large House seat open, but trader consensus heavily favors Republicans at 91.5% implied probability, reflecting the district's deep-red history—GOP margins exceeded 70% in recent cycles—and frontrunner Attorney General Marty Jackley's commanding position in the June 2 Republican primary, where a March poll showed him at 51% versus 7% for challenger James Bialota amid $922,000 cash-on-hand advantage and Trump endorsement. Democrats' presumptive nominee Nikki Gronli trails in fundraising with under $100,000 raised. Petition challenges to Jackley were recently dismissed, solidifying the field post-March 31 filing deadline. Barring a primary upset, nominee scandal, health issues, or rare national Democratic midterm wave, the outlook remains firmly Republican.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Piyasa Açıldı: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Hacim
$4,577Bitiş Tarihi
3 Kas 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Dusty Johnson's departure for the 2026 gubernatorial race leaves South Dakota's at-large House seat open, but trader consensus heavily favors Republicans at 91.5% implied probability, reflecting the district's deep-red history—GOP margins exceeded 70% in recent cycles—and frontrunner Attorney General Marty Jackley's commanding position in the June 2 Republican primary, where a March poll showed him at 51% versus 7% for challenger James Bialota amid $922,000 cash-on-hand advantage and Trump endorsement. Democrats' presumptive nominee Nikki Gronli trails in fundraising with under $100,000 raised. Petition challenges to Jackley were recently dismissed, solidifying the field post-March 31 filing deadline. Barring a primary upset, nominee scandal, health issues, or rare national Democratic midterm wave, the outlook remains firmly Republican.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Hacim
$4,577Bitiş Tarihi
3 Kas 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Dusty Johnson's departure for the 2026 gubernatorial race leaves South Dakota's at-large House seat open, but trader consensus heavily favors Republicans at 91.5% implied probability, reflecting the district's deep-red history—GOP margins exceeded 70% in recent cycles—and frontrunner Attorney General Marty Jackley's commanding position in the June 2 Republican primary, where a March poll showed him at 51% versus 7% for challenger James Bialota amid $922,000 cash-on-hand advantage and Trump endorsement. Democrats' presumptive nominee Nikki Gronli trails in fundraising with under $100,000 raised. Petition challenges to Jackley were recently dismissed, solidifying the field post-March 31 filing deadline. Barring a primary upset, nominee scandal, health issues, or rare national Democratic midterm wave, the outlook remains firmly Republican.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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