Trader consensus favors over nine magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes worldwide from April 13-19 at 39% implied probability, driven by USGS baseline frequency of roughly 12-20 such events per week during active periods, per historical catalog data following the Gutenberg-Richter law. A fresh Nevada swarm since April 13 has already produced at least three events (two M5.7s and one M5.5 near Silver Springs), plus an M5.7 off Costa Rica on April 15, logging four confirmed quakes in the first four days—above average pace. With three days remaining, models project continued global tectonic releases across Pacific Ring of Fire faults. Monitor USGS real-time catalog for updates, as weekly totals vary Poisson-like with no predictive aftershock patterns dominating.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi13 Nisan - 19 Nisan tarihleri arasında 5,5 veya üzeri kaç deprem oldu?
13 Nisan - 19 Nisan tarihleri arasında 5,5 veya üzeri kaç deprem oldu?
>9 39%
8 15%
9 15%
7 14%
$108,657 Hac.
$108,657 Hac.
19 Nis 2026
≤3
<1%
4
1%
5
6%
6
9%
7
14%
8
15%
9
15%
>9
39%
>9 39%
8 15%
9 15%
7 14%
$108,657 Hac.
$108,657 Hac.
19 Nis 2026
≤3
$71,213 Hac.
<1%
4
$6,752 Hac.
1%
5
$2,815 Hac.
6%
6
$1,311 Hac.
9%
7
$1,894 Hac.
14%
8
$2,654 Hac.
15%
9
$1,639 Hac.
15%
>9
$20,378 Hac.
39%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus favors over nine magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes worldwide from April 13-19 at 39% implied probability, driven by USGS baseline frequency of roughly 12-20 such events per week during active periods, per historical catalog data following the Gutenberg-Richter law. A fresh Nevada swarm since April 13 has already produced at least three events (two M5.7s and one M5.5 near Silver Springs), plus an M5.7 off Costa Rica on April 15, logging four confirmed quakes in the first four days—above average pace. With three days remaining, models project continued global tectonic releases across Pacific Ring of Fire faults. Monitor USGS real-time catalog for updates, as weekly totals vary Poisson-like with no predictive aftershock patterns dominating.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Piyasa Açıldı: Apr 10, 2026, 4:26 PM ET
Hacim
$108,657Bitiş Tarihi
19 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Apr 10, 2026, 4:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus favors over nine magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes worldwide from April 13-19 at 39% implied probability, driven by USGS baseline frequency of roughly 12-20 such events per week during active periods, per historical catalog data following the Gutenberg-Richter law. A fresh Nevada swarm since April 13 has already produced at least three events (two M5.7s and one M5.5 near Silver Springs), plus an M5.7 off Costa Rica on April 15, logging four confirmed quakes in the first four days—above average pace. With three days remaining, models project continued global tectonic releases across Pacific Ring of Fire faults. Monitor USGS real-time catalog for updates, as weekly totals vary Poisson-like with no predictive aftershock patterns dominating.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Hacim
$108,657Bitiş Tarihi
19 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Apr 10, 2026, 4:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors over nine magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes worldwide from April 13-19 at 39% implied probability, driven by USGS baseline frequency of roughly 12-20 such events per week during active periods, per historical catalog data following the Gutenberg-Richter law. A fresh Nevada swarm since April 13 has already produced at least three events (two M5.7s and one M5.5 near Silver Springs), plus an M5.7 off Costa Rica on April 15, logging four confirmed quakes in the first four days—above average pace. With three days remaining, models project continued global tectonic releases across Pacific Ring of Fire faults. Monitor USGS real-time catalog for updates, as weekly totals vary Poisson-like with no predictive aftershock patterns dominating.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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