Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects approximately 20 Democratic House incumbents who have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, per trackers like Ballotpedia, clustering implied probabilities around the 24–31 range amid an early-cycle retirement wave—the highest in over a decade driven by an aging caucus, political polarization, and generational pressures. Recent catalysts include veteran Rep. Steny Hoyer's January retirement after 45 years, California Rep. Julia Brownley's announcement the same week, and New Jersey Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman's prior exit, pushing the count past 20, while South Carolina Rep. James Clyburn's March decision to run despite turning 86 steadied expectations. The race stays tight due to unpredictable pacing ahead of primaries and filing deadlines; a surge in vulnerable-seat departures or health issues could elevate odds for 32+, while sustained holdouts from leadership like Hakeem Jeffries' allies might cap totals under 24.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi24–27 30%
28–31 24%
20–23 18.7%
32–35 11.6%
$27,638 Hac.
$27,638 Hac.
31 Ağu 2026
<20
2%
20–23
19%
24–27
30%
28–31
24%
32–35
12%
36–39
6%
40+
7%
24–27 30%
28–31 24%
20–23 18.7%
32–35 11.6%
$27,638 Hac.
$27,638 Hac.
31 Ağu 2026
<20
$15,389 Hac.
2%
20–23
$4,601 Hac.
19%
24–27
$3,407 Hac.
30%
28–31
$1,099 Hac.
24%
32–35
$3,142 Hac.
12%
36–39
$0 Hac.
6%
40+
$0 Hac.
7%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects approximately 20 Democratic House incumbents who have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, per trackers like Ballotpedia, clustering implied probabilities around the 24–31 range amid an early-cycle retirement wave—the highest in over a decade driven by an aging caucus, political polarization, and generational pressures. Recent catalysts include veteran Rep. Steny Hoyer's January retirement after 45 years, California Rep. Julia Brownley's announcement the same week, and New Jersey Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman's prior exit, pushing the count past 20, while South Carolina Rep. James Clyburn's March decision to run despite turning 86 steadied expectations. The race stays tight due to unpredictable pacing ahead of primaries and filing deadlines; a surge in vulnerable-seat departures or health issues could elevate odds for 32+, while sustained holdouts from leadership like Hakeem Jeffries' allies might cap totals under 24.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Piyasa Açıldı: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Hacim
$27,638Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ağu 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects approximately 20 Democratic House incumbents who have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, per trackers like Ballotpedia, clustering implied probabilities around the 24–31 range amid an early-cycle retirement wave—the highest in over a decade driven by an aging caucus, political polarization, and generational pressures. Recent catalysts include veteran Rep. Steny Hoyer's January retirement after 45 years, California Rep. Julia Brownley's announcement the same week, and New Jersey Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman's prior exit, pushing the count past 20, while South Carolina Rep. James Clyburn's March decision to run despite turning 86 steadied expectations. The race stays tight due to unpredictable pacing ahead of primaries and filing deadlines; a surge in vulnerable-seat departures or health issues could elevate odds for 32+, while sustained holdouts from leadership like Hakeem Jeffries' allies might cap totals under 24.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Hacim
$27,638Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ağu 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects approximately 20 Democratic House incumbents who have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, per trackers like Ballotpedia, clustering implied probabilities around the 24–31 range amid an early-cycle retirement wave—the highest in over a decade driven by an aging caucus, political polarization, and generational pressures. Recent catalysts include veteran Rep. Steny Hoyer's January retirement after 45 years, California Rep. Julia Brownley's announcement the same week, and New Jersey Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman's prior exit, pushing the count past 20, while South Carolina Rep. James Clyburn's March decision to run despite turning 86 steadied expectations. The race stays tight due to unpredictable pacing ahead of primaries and filing deadlines; a surge in vulnerable-seat departures or health issues could elevate odds for 32+, while sustained holdouts from leadership like Hakeem Jeffries' allies might cap totals under 24.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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