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Seçimler·PRIMARIEL

CA -04 Birincil Kazananlar

Market icon
Seçimler·PRIMARIEL

CA -04 Birincil Kazananlar

$20,463 Hac.

2 Haz 2026
Polymarket

$20,463 Hac.

Polymarket

Mike Thompson

$6,502 Hac.

98%

Eric Jones

$4,011 Hac.

96%

Trevor Merrell

$6,288 Hac.

16%

Heath Fulkerson

$0 Hac.

8%

Sharon Brown

$1,605 Hac.

6%

Mandy Ghusar

$728 Hac.

6%

Laurie MacKenzie

$710 Hac.

5%

John Wesley Tyler

$618 Hac.

45%

This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson, seeking a 15th term in California's 4th Congressional District, faces a rare Democratic primary challenge from Eric Jones in the June 2 top-two primary, alongside six Republicans and one independent. The district's strong Democratic lean (PVI D+17) and Solid D rating from Cook Political Report favor the top two spots going to Democrats, reflecting Thompson's long tenure, party endorsement, and fundraising lead over Jones, who draws progressive support from Our Revolution. Certified candidate list issued March 26 marks the latest procedural step, with no major polling or scandals emerging in recent weeks; voter registration closes May 18 ahead of mail ballots. Trader sentiment weighs incumbency edge and partisan math against Jones's generational appeal in this low-turnout primary.

This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Hacim
$20,463
Bitiş Tarihi
2 Haz 2026
Piyasa Açıldı
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson, seeking a 15th term in California's 4th Congressional District, faces a rare Democratic primary challenge from Eric Jones in the June 2 top-two primary, alongside six Republicans and one independent. The district's strong Democratic lean (PVI D+17) and Solid D rating from Cook Political Report favor the top two spots going to Democrats, reflecting Thompson's long tenure, party endorsement, and fundraising lead over Jones, who draws progressive support from Our Revolution. Certified candidate list issued March 26 marks the latest procedural step, with no major polling or scandals emerging in recent weeks; voter registration closes May 18 ahead of mail ballots. Trader sentiment weighs incumbency edge and partisan math against Jones's generational appeal in this low-turnout primary.

This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Hacim
$20,463
Bitiş Tarihi
2 Haz 2026
Piyasa Açıldı
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.

Sıkça Sorulan Sorular

"CA -04 Birincil Kazananlar", yatırımcıların ne olacağına inandıklarına göre hisse alıp sattığı 8 olası sonuçlu Polymarket'teki bir tahmin piyasasıdır. Mevcut lider sonuç 98% ile "Mike Thompson", ardından 96% ile "Eric Jones" gelmektedir. Fiyatlar gerçek zamanlı kitle kaynaklı olasılıkları yansıtır. Örneğin, 98¢ fiyatlı bir hisse, piyasanın toplu olarak o sonuca 98% olasılık atadığı anlamına gelir. Bu oranlar, yatırımcılar yeni gelişmelere ve bilgilere tepki verdikçe sürekli değişir. Doğru sonuçtaki hisseler piyasa çözümlemesinde her biri 1$ karşılığında tahsil edilebilir.

Bugün itibarıyla "CA -04 Birincil Kazananlar" toplam $20.5K işlem hacmi oluşturmuştur piyasa Feb 26, 2026 tarihinde açıldığından beri. Bu düzeyde işlem aktivitesi Polymarket topluluğundan güçlü katılımı yansıtır ve mevcut oranların derin bir piyasa katılımcıları havuzu tarafından bilgilendirilmesini sağlar. Bu sayfada canlı fiyat hareketlerini takip edebilir ve herhangi bir sonuç üzerinde doğrudan işlem yapabilirsiniz.

"CA -04 Birincil Kazananlar" üzerinde işlem yapmak için bu sayfada listelenen 8 mevcut sonuca göz atın. Her sonuç, piyasanın ima edilen olasılığını temsil eden bir güncel fiyat gösterir. Pozisyon almak için en olası olduğuna inandığınız sonucu seçin, lehine işlem yapmak için "Evet" veya aleyhine işlem yapmak için "Hayır" seçin, miktarınızı girin ve "İşlem Yap"a tıklayın. Piyasa çözümlendiğinde seçtiğiniz sonuç doğruysa, "Evet" hisseleriniz her biri 1$ öder. Yanlışsa 0$ öderler. Ayrıca kâr kilitlemek veya zararı kesmek isterseniz çözümlemeden önce istediğiniz zaman hisselerinizi satabilirsiniz.

"CA -04 Birincil Kazananlar" için mevcut favori 98% ile "Mike Thompson"dir, yani piyasa bu sonuca 98% olasılık atamaktadır. En yakın sonuç 96% ile "Eric Jones"dir. Bu oranlar yatırımcılar hisse alıp sattıkça gerçek zamanlı güncellenir, bu nedenle en olası olanın en son kolektif görüşünü yansıtır. Yeni bilgiler ortaya çıktıkça oranların nasıl değiştiğini takip etmek için sık sık kontrol edin veya bu sayfayı yer imlerine ekleyin.

"CA -04 Birincil Kazananlar" için çözümleme kuralları, her sonucun kazanan olarak ilan edilmesi için tam olarak ne olması gerektiğini tanımlar — sonucu belirlemek için kullanılan resmi veri kaynakları dahil. Bu sayfadaki yorumların üzerindeki "Kurallar" bölümünde tam çözümleme kriterlerini inceleyebilirsiniz. İşlem yapmadan önce kuralları dikkatli bir şekilde okumanızı öneririz, çünkü bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğini yöneten kesin koşulları, istisnai durumları ve kaynakları belirtir.