Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 1250+ US tornadoes in 2026 at 35.5% implied probability, driven by NOAA Storm Prediction Center preliminary data showing above-climatological early-season activity—around 290 confirmed tornadoes by early April versus a typical year-to-date of ~250—fueled by repeated supercell outbreaks in March (176 reports) and recent events like the April 13 severe weather across Kansas, Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin producing 14+ tornadoes. Historical annual averages hover near 1,225 per NCEI records, aligning with seasonal outlooks from AccuWeather projecting 1,050–1,250 amid ENSO-neutral conditions that support average-to-slightly-elevated shear and instability. Peak tornado months of May and June loom, with upcoming SPC outlooks and model ensembles critical for refining totals, though inherent forecast uncertainty persists due to evolving atmospheric patterns.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiHow many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
1250+ 36%
1000–1049 21.5%
1150–1199 8.9%
<950 7%
$64,519 Hac.
$64,519 Hac.
10 Oca 2027
<950
7%
950–999
4%
1000–1049
21%
1050–1099
5%
1100–1149
4%
1150–1199
10%
1200–1249
11%
1250+
36%
1250+ 36%
1000–1049 21.5%
1150–1199 8.9%
<950 7%
$64,519 Hac.
$64,519 Hac.
10 Oca 2027
<950
$21,622 Hac.
7%
950–999
$2,049 Hac.
4%
1000–1049
$1,534 Hac.
21%
1050–1099
$7,106 Hac.
5%
1100–1149
$1,375 Hac.
4%
1150–1199
$1,708 Hac.
10%
1200–1249
$14,432 Hac.
11%
1250+
$14,692 Hac.
36%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 1250+ US tornadoes in 2026 at 35.5% implied probability, driven by NOAA Storm Prediction Center preliminary data showing above-climatological early-season activity—around 290 confirmed tornadoes by early April versus a typical year-to-date of ~250—fueled by repeated supercell outbreaks in March (176 reports) and recent events like the April 13 severe weather across Kansas, Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin producing 14+ tornadoes. Historical annual averages hover near 1,225 per NCEI records, aligning with seasonal outlooks from AccuWeather projecting 1,050–1,250 amid ENSO-neutral conditions that support average-to-slightly-elevated shear and instability. Peak tornado months of May and June loom, with upcoming SPC outlooks and model ensembles critical for refining totals, though inherent forecast uncertainty persists due to evolving atmospheric patterns.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Piyasa Açıldı: Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Hacim
$64,519Bitiş Tarihi
10 Oca 2027Piyasa Açıldı
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 1250+ US tornadoes in 2026 at 35.5% implied probability, driven by NOAA Storm Prediction Center preliminary data showing above-climatological early-season activity—around 290 confirmed tornadoes by early April versus a typical year-to-date of ~250—fueled by repeated supercell outbreaks in March (176 reports) and recent events like the April 13 severe weather across Kansas, Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin producing 14+ tornadoes. Historical annual averages hover near 1,225 per NCEI records, aligning with seasonal outlooks from AccuWeather projecting 1,050–1,250 amid ENSO-neutral conditions that support average-to-slightly-elevated shear and instability. Peak tornado months of May and June loom, with upcoming SPC outlooks and model ensembles critical for refining totals, though inherent forecast uncertainty persists due to evolving atmospheric patterns.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Hacim
$64,519Bitiş Tarihi
10 Oca 2027Piyasa Açıldı
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 1250+ US tornadoes in 2026 at 35.5% implied probability, driven by NOAA Storm Prediction Center preliminary data showing above-climatological early-season activity—around 290 confirmed tornadoes by early April versus a typical year-to-date of ~250—fueled by repeated supercell outbreaks in March (176 reports) and recent events like the April 13 severe weather across Kansas, Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin producing 14+ tornadoes. Historical annual averages hover near 1,225 per NCEI records, aligning with seasonal outlooks from AccuWeather projecting 1,050–1,250 amid ENSO-neutral conditions that support average-to-slightly-elevated shear and instability. Peak tornado months of May and June loom, with upcoming SPC outlooks and model ensembles critical for refining totals, though inherent forecast uncertainty persists due to evolving atmospheric patterns.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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