Louisiana's entrenched Republican dominance, with no Democratic U.S. Senate win since 2008 and a partisan lean exceeding R+15, underpins trader consensus pricing Republicans at 91.5% to claim victory in the November general election. Recent March-April polls highlight a competitive GOP closed primary on May 16, where Rep. Julia Letlow leads incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy (20-21%) and John Fleming (24-25%), fueled by Cassidy's past impeachment vote against Trump drawing primary challenges but posing minimal general election risk given the weak, low-profile Democratic field. Potential runoff in early June could consolidate GOP support; odds could shift via nominee scandal, national wave election, or urban turnout surge, though historical precedents and polling baselines favor a safe hold.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiLouisiana Senate Election Winner
Louisiana Senate Election Winner
YENİ
YENİ
3 Kas 2026
Republican
91%
Democrat
9%
YENİ
YENİ
3 Kas 2026
Republican
$2,798 Hac.
91%
Democrat
$2,465 Hac.
9%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Louisiana's entrenched Republican dominance, with no Democratic U.S. Senate win since 2008 and a partisan lean exceeding R+15, underpins trader consensus pricing Republicans at 91.5% to claim victory in the November general election. Recent March-April polls highlight a competitive GOP closed primary on May 16, where Rep. Julia Letlow leads incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy (20-21%) and John Fleming (24-25%), fueled by Cassidy's past impeachment vote against Trump drawing primary challenges but posing minimal general election risk given the weak, low-profile Democratic field. Potential runoff in early June could consolidate GOP support; odds could shift via nominee scandal, national wave election, or urban turnout surge, though historical precedents and polling baselines favor a safe hold.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Piyasa Açıldı: Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ET
Hacim
$5,263Bitiş Tarihi
3 Kas 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Louisiana's entrenched Republican dominance, with no Democratic U.S. Senate win since 2008 and a partisan lean exceeding R+15, underpins trader consensus pricing Republicans at 91.5% to claim victory in the November general election. Recent March-April polls highlight a competitive GOP closed primary on May 16, where Rep. Julia Letlow leads incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy (20-21%) and John Fleming (24-25%), fueled by Cassidy's past impeachment vote against Trump drawing primary challenges but posing minimal general election risk given the weak, low-profile Democratic field. Potential runoff in early June could consolidate GOP support; odds could shift via nominee scandal, national wave election, or urban turnout surge, though historical precedents and polling baselines favor a safe hold.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Hacim
$5,263Bitiş Tarihi
3 Kas 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Louisiana's entrenched Republican dominance, with no Democratic U.S. Senate win since 2008 and a partisan lean exceeding R+15, underpins trader consensus pricing Republicans at 91.5% to claim victory in the November general election. Recent March-April polls highlight a competitive GOP closed primary on May 16, where Rep. Julia Letlow leads incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy (20-21%) and John Fleming (24-25%), fueled by Cassidy's past impeachment vote against Trump drawing primary challenges but posing minimal general election risk given the weak, low-profile Democratic field. Potential runoff in early June could consolidate GOP support; odds could shift via nominee scandal, national wave election, or urban turnout surge, though historical precedents and polling baselines favor a safe hold.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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