Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% to win New York's 12th Congressional District, driven by the seat's longstanding status as a safe Democratic stronghold in affluent Manhattan neighborhoods, even after longtime incumbent Rep. Jerry Nadler's retirement announcement. Recent developments center on a crowded Democratic primary—featuring high-profile contenders like Jack Schlossberg (leading a March poll at 25%), Assemblymen Micah Lasher and Alex Bores, and political commentator George Conway—with forums and fundraising underscoring intense intra-party competition but no viable Republican threat, as the GOP's endorsed candidate Caroline Shinkle trails far behind. Cook Political ratings remain steady without shifting this race. Scenarios like a post-primary Democratic nominee scandal, weak turnout, or a national Republican wave could alter odds before the June 23 primaries and November 3 general election.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiNY-12 House Election Winner
NY-12 House Election Winner
YENİ
YENİ
3 Kas 2026
Demokrat Parti
94%
Cumhuriyetçi Parti
6%
YENİ
YENİ
3 Kas 2026
Demokrat Parti
$7,606 Hac.
94%
Cumhuriyetçi Parti
$2,270 Hac.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% to win New York's 12th Congressional District, driven by the seat's longstanding status as a safe Democratic stronghold in affluent Manhattan neighborhoods, even after longtime incumbent Rep. Jerry Nadler's retirement announcement. Recent developments center on a crowded Democratic primary—featuring high-profile contenders like Jack Schlossberg (leading a March poll at 25%), Assemblymen Micah Lasher and Alex Bores, and political commentator George Conway—with forums and fundraising underscoring intense intra-party competition but no viable Republican threat, as the GOP's endorsed candidate Caroline Shinkle trails far behind. Cook Political ratings remain steady without shifting this race. Scenarios like a post-primary Democratic nominee scandal, weak turnout, or a national Republican wave could alter odds before the June 23 primaries and November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Piyasa Açıldı: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Hacim
$9,876Bitiş Tarihi
3 Kas 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% to win New York's 12th Congressional District, driven by the seat's longstanding status as a safe Democratic stronghold in affluent Manhattan neighborhoods, even after longtime incumbent Rep. Jerry Nadler's retirement announcement. Recent developments center on a crowded Democratic primary—featuring high-profile contenders like Jack Schlossberg (leading a March poll at 25%), Assemblymen Micah Lasher and Alex Bores, and political commentator George Conway—with forums and fundraising underscoring intense intra-party competition but no viable Republican threat, as the GOP's endorsed candidate Caroline Shinkle trails far behind. Cook Political ratings remain steady without shifting this race. Scenarios like a post-primary Democratic nominee scandal, weak turnout, or a national Republican wave could alter odds before the June 23 primaries and November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Hacim
$9,876Bitiş Tarihi
3 Kas 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.5% to win New York's 12th Congressional District, driven by the seat's longstanding status as a safe Democratic stronghold in affluent Manhattan neighborhoods, even after longtime incumbent Rep. Jerry Nadler's retirement announcement. Recent developments center on a crowded Democratic primary—featuring high-profile contenders like Jack Schlossberg (leading a March poll at 25%), Assemblymen Micah Lasher and Alex Bores, and political commentator George Conway—with forums and fundraising underscoring intense intra-party competition but no viable Republican threat, as the GOP's endorsed candidate Caroline Shinkle trails far behind. Cook Political ratings remain steady without shifting this race. Scenarios like a post-primary Democratic nominee scandal, weak turnout, or a national Republican wave could alter odds before the June 23 primaries and November 3 general election.
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