U.S. intelligence assessments, including the Office of the Director of National Intelligence's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, conclude China is unlikely to launch a military invasion of Taiwan by 2027, citing incomplete PLA readiness amid recent high-level purges and a preference for non-kinetic unification efforts. Trader consensus reflects this, pricing "No" at 90.5% amid stable Taiwan Strait patrols and South China Sea tensions that have not escalated to direct U.S.-China clashes despite routine Chinese drills and U.S. freedom-of-navigation operations. Ongoing diplomatic channels, such as potential summits, and China's focus on military modernization without aggressive timelines reinforce de-escalation signals, though sudden provocations like intensified blockades or accidents could shift odds before year-end.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiEvet
$72,208 Hac.
$72,208 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
Evet
$72,208 Hac.
$72,208 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.U.S. intelligence assessments, including the Office of the Director of National Intelligence's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, conclude China is unlikely to launch a military invasion of Taiwan by 2027, citing incomplete PLA readiness amid recent high-level purges and a preference for non-kinetic unification efforts. Trader consensus reflects this, pricing "No" at 90.5% amid stable Taiwan Strait patrols and South China Sea tensions that have not escalated to direct U.S.-China clashes despite routine Chinese drills and U.S. freedom-of-navigation operations. Ongoing diplomatic channels, such as potential summits, and China's focus on military modernization without aggressive timelines reinforce de-escalation signals, though sudden provocations like intensified blockades or accidents could shift odds before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Piyasa Açıldı: Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Hacim
$72,208Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.U.S. intelligence assessments, including the Office of the Director of National Intelligence's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, conclude China is unlikely to launch a military invasion of Taiwan by 2027, citing incomplete PLA readiness amid recent high-level purges and a preference for non-kinetic unification efforts. Trader consensus reflects this, pricing "No" at 90.5% amid stable Taiwan Strait patrols and South China Sea tensions that have not escalated to direct U.S.-China clashes despite routine Chinese drills and U.S. freedom-of-navigation operations. Ongoing diplomatic channels, such as potential summits, and China's focus on military modernization without aggressive timelines reinforce de-escalation signals, though sudden provocations like intensified blockades or accidents could shift odds before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Hacim
$72,208Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...U.S. intelligence assessments, including the Office of the Director of National Intelligence's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, conclude China is unlikely to launch a military invasion of Taiwan by 2027, citing incomplete PLA readiness amid recent high-level purges and a preference for non-kinetic unification efforts. Trader consensus reflects this, pricing "No" at 90.5% amid stable Taiwan Strait patrols and South China Sea tensions that have not escalated to direct U.S.-China clashes despite routine Chinese drills and U.S. freedom-of-navigation operations. Ongoing diplomatic channels, such as potential summits, and China's focus on military modernization without aggressive timelines reinforce de-escalation signals, though sudden provocations like intensified blockades or accidents could shift odds before year-end.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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