Trader consensus reflects 92% implied probability of no coup attempt in China before 2027, driven by President Xi Jinping's unchallenged consolidation of power amid recent military purges. In late January 2026, official investigations targeted top PLA generals Zhang Youxia—a longtime Xi associate—and Liu Zhenli for corruption and alleged nuclear secrets leaks, sparking unverified rumors of a failed plot against Xi on January 18. No evidence of an actual coup has emerged, with state media framing the moves as anti-corruption enforcement, reinforcing perceptions of ironclad central control over the People's Liberation Army. Absent new escalations, scandals, or economic shocks, the stability of Xi's leadership underpins these high odds, though rapid shifts remain possible in opaque Chinese politics.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiEvet
$117,955 Hac.
$117,955 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
Evet
$117,955 Hac.
$117,955 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects 92% implied probability of no coup attempt in China before 2027, driven by President Xi Jinping's unchallenged consolidation of power amid recent military purges. In late January 2026, official investigations targeted top PLA generals Zhang Youxia—a longtime Xi associate—and Liu Zhenli for corruption and alleged nuclear secrets leaks, sparking unverified rumors of a failed plot against Xi on January 18. No evidence of an actual coup has emerged, with state media framing the moves as anti-corruption enforcement, reinforcing perceptions of ironclad central control over the People's Liberation Army. Absent new escalations, scandals, or economic shocks, the stability of Xi's leadership underpins these high odds, though rapid shifts remain possible in opaque Chinese politics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Piyasa Açıldı: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Hacim
$117,955Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects 92% implied probability of no coup attempt in China before 2027, driven by President Xi Jinping's unchallenged consolidation of power amid recent military purges. In late January 2026, official investigations targeted top PLA generals Zhang Youxia—a longtime Xi associate—and Liu Zhenli for corruption and alleged nuclear secrets leaks, sparking unverified rumors of a failed plot against Xi on January 18. No evidence of an actual coup has emerged, with state media framing the moves as anti-corruption enforcement, reinforcing perceptions of ironclad central control over the People's Liberation Army. Absent new escalations, scandals, or economic shocks, the stability of Xi's leadership underpins these high odds, though rapid shifts remain possible in opaque Chinese politics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Hacim
$117,955Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects 92% implied probability of no coup attempt in China before 2027, driven by President Xi Jinping's unchallenged consolidation of power amid recent military purges. In late January 2026, official investigations targeted top PLA generals Zhang Youxia—a longtime Xi associate—and Liu Zhenli for corruption and alleged nuclear secrets leaks, sparking unverified rumors of a failed plot against Xi on January 18. No evidence of an actual coup has emerged, with state media framing the moves as anti-corruption enforcement, reinforcing perceptions of ironclad central control over the People's Liberation Army. Absent new escalations, scandals, or economic shocks, the stability of Xi's leadership underpins these high odds, though rapid shifts remain possible in opaque Chinese politics.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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