Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 76.5% implied probability that at least one 2026 month will surpass the current global surface air temperature record—likely held by July 2023 or 2024—driven primarily by NOAA's latest ENSO forecast indicating El Niño emergence as soon as May-July (61% chance) and persisting through year-end, which historically amplifies global heat during boreal summer peaks like July-August. Early 2026 months ranked highly but fell short: January and February as the fifth-warmest, March fourth-warmest per Copernicus data, amid persistently elevated sea surface temperatures near record levels. Ongoing anthropogenic warming trends support this positioning, though ENSO model spread introduces uncertainty; watch upcoming NOAA bulletins and June forecast updates for shifts.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi2026 'nın herhangi bir ayı kayıtlardaki en sıcak ay olacak mı?
2026 'nın herhangi bir ayı kayıtlardaki en sıcak ay olacak mı?
Evet
$119,575 Hac.
$119,575 Hac.
10 Oca 2027
Evet
$119,575 Hac.
$119,575 Hac.
10 Oca 2027
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 76.5% implied probability that at least one 2026 month will surpass the current global surface air temperature record—likely held by July 2023 or 2024—driven primarily by NOAA's latest ENSO forecast indicating El Niño emergence as soon as May-July (61% chance) and persisting through year-end, which historically amplifies global heat during boreal summer peaks like July-August. Early 2026 months ranked highly but fell short: January and February as the fifth-warmest, March fourth-warmest per Copernicus data, amid persistently elevated sea surface temperatures near record levels. Ongoing anthropogenic warming trends support this positioning, though ENSO model spread introduces uncertainty; watch upcoming NOAA bulletins and June forecast updates for shifts.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Piyasa Açıldı: Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
Hacim
$119,575Bitiş Tarihi
10 Oca 2027Piyasa Açıldı
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 76.5% implied probability that at least one 2026 month will surpass the current global surface air temperature record—likely held by July 2023 or 2024—driven primarily by NOAA's latest ENSO forecast indicating El Niño emergence as soon as May-July (61% chance) and persisting through year-end, which historically amplifies global heat during boreal summer peaks like July-August. Early 2026 months ranked highly but fell short: January and February as the fifth-warmest, March fourth-warmest per Copernicus data, amid persistently elevated sea surface temperatures near record levels. Ongoing anthropogenic warming trends support this positioning, though ENSO model spread introduces uncertainty; watch upcoming NOAA bulletins and June forecast updates for shifts.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Hacim
$119,575Bitiş Tarihi
10 Oca 2027Piyasa Açıldı
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 76.5% implied probability that at least one 2026 month will surpass the current global surface air temperature record—likely held by July 2023 or 2024—driven primarily by NOAA's latest ENSO forecast indicating El Niño emergence as soon as May-July (61% chance) and persisting through year-end, which historically amplifies global heat during boreal summer peaks like July-August. Early 2026 months ranked highly but fell short: January and February as the fifth-warmest, March fourth-warmest per Copernicus data, amid persistently elevated sea surface temperatures near record levels. Ongoing anthropogenic warming trends support this positioning, though ENSO model spread introduces uncertainty; watch upcoming NOAA bulletins and June forecast updates for shifts.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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