Florida's special U.S. Senate election, triggered by Marco Rubio's vacancy and set for November 3, 2026 following August 18 primaries, sees trader consensus pricing Republicans at 78% to win amid the state's entrenched GOP dominance after Trump's 2024 landslide and Republican gains in swing districts. Attorney General Ashley Moody leads as the Republican frontrunner, topping recent polls like Emerson College (March 29-31, Moody 46%-38% over Alex Vindman) and aggregates showing a 5-6 point GOP edge over Democrats including Vindman, Annette Nixon, or Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. Tight Democratic internals highlight competitiveness, but Florida's electoral math, low Democratic turnout base rates, and Moody's statewide profile sustain the heavy Republican lean despite polling discrepancies.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоFlorida Senate Election Winner
Florida Senate Election Winner
$33,875 Обс.
$33,875 Обс.
Republican
77%
Democrat
15%
$33,875 Обс.
$33,875 Обс.
Republican
$17,676 Обс.
77%
Democrat
$16,199 Обс.
15%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Florida's special U.S. Senate election, triggered by Marco Rubio's vacancy and set for November 3, 2026 following August 18 primaries, sees trader consensus pricing Republicans at 78% to win amid the state's entrenched GOP dominance after Trump's 2024 landslide and Republican gains in swing districts. Attorney General Ashley Moody leads as the Republican frontrunner, topping recent polls like Emerson College (March 29-31, Moody 46%-38% over Alex Vindman) and aggregates showing a 5-6 point GOP edge over Democrats including Vindman, Annette Nixon, or Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. Tight Democratic internals highlight competitiveness, but Florida's electoral math, low Democratic turnout base rates, and Moody's statewide profile sustain the heavy Republican lean despite polling discrepancies.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Ринок відкрито: Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ET
Обсяг
$33,875Ринок відкрито
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Florida's special U.S. Senate election, triggered by Marco Rubio's vacancy and set for November 3, 2026 following August 18 primaries, sees trader consensus pricing Republicans at 78% to win amid the state's entrenched GOP dominance after Trump's 2024 landslide and Republican gains in swing districts. Attorney General Ashley Moody leads as the Republican frontrunner, topping recent polls like Emerson College (March 29-31, Moody 46%-38% over Alex Vindman) and aggregates showing a 5-6 point GOP edge over Democrats including Vindman, Annette Nixon, or Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. Tight Democratic internals highlight competitiveness, but Florida's electoral math, low Democratic turnout base rates, and Moody's statewide profile sustain the heavy Republican lean despite polling discrepancies.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Обсяг
$33,875Ринок відкрито
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Florida's special U.S. Senate election, triggered by Marco Rubio's vacancy and set for November 3, 2026 following August 18 primaries, sees trader consensus pricing Republicans at 78% to win amid the state's entrenched GOP dominance after Trump's 2024 landslide and Republican gains in swing districts. Attorney General Ashley Moody leads as the Republican frontrunner, topping recent polls like Emerson College (March 29-31, Moody 46%-38% over Alex Vindman) and aggregates showing a 5-6 point GOP edge over Democrats including Vindman, Annette Nixon, or Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. Tight Democratic internals highlight competitiveness, but Florida's electoral math, low Democratic turnout base rates, and Moody's statewide profile sustain the heavy Republican lean despite polling discrepancies.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання