Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan faces Republican challenger Jackie Auringer in New York’s 18th congressional district for the November 3, 2026 general election. Trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee reflects the district’s partisan lean, Ryan’s prior reelection margin, and nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as Solid or Likely Democratic. Both candidates advanced unopposed after primaries scheduled for June 23 were canceled, limiting early volatility. Limited recent polling shows the Democrat ahead, while Republican recruitment has not produced a high-profile contender capable of shifting the race into competitive territory. These structural and candidate factors underpin current implied probabilities ahead of the fall campaign.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNY-18 House Election Winner
NY-18 House Election Winner
$33,316 Обс.
$33,316 Обс.
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
62%
Republican Party
12%
$33,316 Обс.
$33,316 Обс.
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$32,013 Обс.
62%
Republican Party
$1,303 Обс.
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan faces Republican challenger Jackie Auringer in New York’s 18th congressional district for the November 3, 2026 general election. Trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee reflects the district’s partisan lean, Ryan’s prior reelection margin, and nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as Solid or Likely Democratic. Both candidates advanced unopposed after primaries scheduled for June 23 were canceled, limiting early volatility. Limited recent polling shows the Democrat ahead, while Republican recruitment has not produced a high-profile contender capable of shifting the race into competitive territory. These structural and candidate factors underpin current implied probabilities ahead of the fall campaign.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Обсяг
$33,316Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan faces Republican challenger Jackie Auringer in New York’s 18th congressional district for the November 3, 2026 general election. Trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee reflects the district’s partisan lean, Ryan’s prior reelection margin, and nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as Solid or Likely Democratic. Both candidates advanced unopposed after primaries scheduled for June 23 were canceled, limiting early volatility. Limited recent polling shows the Democrat ahead, while Republican recruitment has not produced a high-profile contender capable of shifting the race into competitive territory. These structural and candidate factors underpin current implied probabilities ahead of the fall campaign.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$33,316Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan faces Republican challenger Jackie Auringer in New York’s 18th congressional district for the November 3, 2026 general election. Trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee reflects the district’s partisan lean, Ryan’s prior reelection margin, and nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as Solid or Likely Democratic. Both candidates advanced unopposed after primaries scheduled for June 23 were canceled, limiting early volatility. Limited recent polling shows the Democrat ahead, while Republican recruitment has not produced a high-profile contender capable of shifting the race into competitive territory. These structural and candidate factors underpin current implied probabilities ahead of the fall campaign.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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