Republican incumbent Mike Lawler seeks re-election in the competitive Hudson Valley district, rated a toss-up or lean Republican by forecasters including Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. The June 23 Democratic primary, featuring frontrunners Cait Conley and Beth Davidson, will set the general election matchup for November 3. Traders assign Democrats a 69% implied probability of victory, reflecting the seat's narrow D+1 partisan voter index, historical midterm dynamics favoring the opposition party, and early polling showing Democratic challengers competitive with or ahead of Lawler. Fundraising, endorsements, and national House control stakes continue to influence positioning ahead of the primary.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNY-17 House Election Winner
NY-17 House Election Winner
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
69%
Republican Party
53%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$304 Обс.
69%
Republican Party
$178 Обс.
53%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Mike Lawler seeks re-election in the competitive Hudson Valley district, rated a toss-up or lean Republican by forecasters including Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. The June 23 Democratic primary, featuring frontrunners Cait Conley and Beth Davidson, will set the general election matchup for November 3. Traders assign Democrats a 69% implied probability of victory, reflecting the seat's narrow D+1 partisan voter index, historical midterm dynamics favoring the opposition party, and early polling showing Democratic challengers competitive with or ahead of Lawler. Fundraising, endorsements, and national House control stakes continue to influence positioning ahead of the primary.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Обсяг
$481Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Mike Lawler seeks re-election in the competitive Hudson Valley district, rated a toss-up or lean Republican by forecasters including Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. The June 23 Democratic primary, featuring frontrunners Cait Conley and Beth Davidson, will set the general election matchup for November 3. Traders assign Democrats a 69% implied probability of victory, reflecting the seat's narrow D+1 partisan voter index, historical midterm dynamics favoring the opposition party, and early polling showing Democratic challengers competitive with or ahead of Lawler. Fundraising, endorsements, and national House control stakes continue to influence positioning ahead of the primary.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$481Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican incumbent Mike Lawler seeks re-election in the competitive Hudson Valley district, rated a toss-up or lean Republican by forecasters including Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. The June 23 Democratic primary, featuring frontrunners Cait Conley and Beth Davidson, will set the general election matchup for November 3. Traders assign Democrats a 69% implied probability of victory, reflecting the seat's narrow D+1 partisan voter index, historical midterm dynamics favoring the opposition party, and early polling showing Democratic challengers competitive with or ahead of Lawler. Fundraising, endorsements, and national House control stakes continue to influence positioning ahead of the primary.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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